Thursday June 22, 2023, Today Stock Market

    • Today Stock Market

    • Welcome fellow stock traders!  E-MAIL ME AT:   bobburan@juno.com   with questions.  Download nine years of trading performance at the very bottom of this page.  I am Robert Buran and I update Today Stock Market every trading day.  I utilize Short Term Stock Trading wp-content-uploads-2013-03-robertburan Thursday June 22, 2023, Today Stock Marketstrategies along with  automated stock trading software and short term stock trading systems to take trades everyday in the U.S. stock market including the NYSE, NASDAQ, and AMEX. I post my trading  positions here along with images and charts.  I include a video of my stock market report on this page every day.

Thursday June 22, 2023

Dow opens -45 and our open trade plunges nearly 20 K from yesterday (click to enlarge)

OPEN-14-300x156 Thursday June 22, 2023, Today Stock Market
 

Doggone !  (click to enlarge)
leo-Doggone-Markets-223x300 Thursday June 22, 2023, Today Stock Market
The Dow closes – 5 and this is what we closed out:  ASST -2227, YS -900, MBOT -660, LFMD +1782, BIG -666, OLB -4000, UCAR +11790
TOTAL = + $5,119
This is what we are holding (click to enlarge)
CLOSE-15-300x160 Thursday June 22, 2023, Today Stock Market

 
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Wednesday June 21, 2023, Today Stock Market

    • Today Stock Market

    • Welcome fellow stock traders!  E-MAIL ME AT:   bobburan@juno.com   with questions.  Download nine years of trading performance at the very bottom of this page.  I am Robert Buran and I update Today Stock Market every trading day.  I utilize Short Term Stock Trading wp-content-uploads-2013-03-robertburan Wednesday June 21, 2023, Today Stock Marketstrategies along with  automated stock trading software and short term stock trading systems to take trades everyday in the U.S. stock market including the NYSE, NASDAQ, and AMEX. I post my trading  positions here along with images and charts.  I include a video of my stock market report on this page every day.

Wednesday June 21, 2023

Dow opens -146 and our open trade gets better (click to enlarge)

OPEN-13-300x156 Wednesday June 21, 2023, Today Stock Market
 

20 minutes in  (click to enlarge)
20-minutes-in-1-300x153 Wednesday June 21, 2023, Today Stock Market
UCAR (click to enlarge)
UCAR-300x141 Wednesday June 21, 2023, Today Stock Market
3 3/4 hours in  (click to enlarge)
3-and-3-quarters-hours-in-300x156 Wednesday June 21, 2023, Today Stock Market
Last Hour  (click to enlarge)
Last-Hour-300x161 Wednesday June 21, 2023, Today Stock Market
The Dow closes – 55 and this is what we closed out:  CXAI -400, SDA -168, MGOL +3300, VERA +8208
TOTAL = + $10,940
This is what we are holding (click to enlarge)
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Tuesday June 20, 2023, Today Stock Market

    • Today Stock Market

    • Welcome fellow stock traders!  E-MAIL ME AT:   bobburan@juno.com   with questions.  Download nine years of trading performance at the very bottom of this page.  I am Robert Buran and I update Today Stock Market every trading day.  I utilize Short Term Stock Trading wp-content-uploads-2013-03-robertburan Tuesday June 20, 2023, Today Stock Marketstrategies along with  automated stock trading software and short term stock trading systems to take trades everyday in the U.S. stock market including the NYSE, NASDAQ, and AMEX. I post my trading  positions here along with images and charts.  I include a video of my stock market report on this page every day.

Tuesday June 20, 2023

We open late and the Dow opens -175 and our open trade gets worse (click to enlarge)

OPEN-12-300x151 Tuesday June 20, 2023, Today Stock Market
 

Three Hours in  (click to enlarge)
3-hours-in-300x162 Tuesday June 20, 2023, Today Stock Market
MGOL (click to enlarge)
MGOL-300x142 Tuesday June 20, 2023, Today Stock Market
The Dow closes -230 and this is what we closed out:  IMTX +2220, MBOT -5527, GCT -2610, YS -300
TOTAL = – $6,217
This is what we are holding (click to enlarge)

CLOSE-13-300x160 Tuesday June 20, 2023, Today Stock Market

 
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Mastering Automated Trading: Unleash the Power of Algorithms from Home

Mastering Automated Trading: Unleash the Power of Algorithms from Home

Transition from Manual to Automated Trading: A Personal Perspective

leo-Automated-Trading-From-Home-220x300 Mastering Automated Trading: Unleash the Power of Algorithms from Home
A man sitting at home in front of a wall of computer screens, utilizing advanced trading technology for automated trading.

Automated trading from home has revolutionized the way individuals can participate in financial markets, bringing them on par with big banks and hedge funds. With nearly 40 years of experience in trading futures and stocks, I have witnessed the transformation from manual trading to the seamless automation we have today. In the early 1980s, I would rely on an electronic device called a “QuoTrek” to receive market data, and executing trades meant making phone calls to brokers and waiting for price confirmations.

Fast forward to 2023, and the process seems archaic compared to the technological advancements we now enjoy. Today, automated trading can be done electronically and almost instantly, often with zero commissions. So, what exactly is automated trading or algo trading? Simply put, it involves using algorithms, which are step-by-step procedures for performing calculations, to execute trades.

Visualizing Algorithmic Trades: Real-Life Example

For instance, consider an algorithm for a stock buy entry: “If the daily bar breaks above the Keltner channel on day one and the low of the daily bar remains above the Keltner channel on the second day, buy the open of the third day.” Analyzing the chart below, we can see that in January 2023, these conditions were met, and the algorithm initiated a buy order, indicated by the first green arrow.

To complement this, we can also code an exit strategy into the algorithm, such as “If the position is long on day 3, exit the long position on day 7.” By utilizing TradeStation software and its “easy language” coding, we can implement this algorithm seamlessly. Refer to the chart below for a visual representation of how the algorithm would execute this trade:

Keltner-Channel-Breakout-226x300 Mastering Automated Trading: Unleash the Power of Algorithms from Home
Maximizing Profits with Algorithmic Trading: Clear Buy and Sell Points for Smart Trading Decisions.

]

The best part is that if we automate our algorithm through TradeStation, the trade can take place even while we sleep. Should you encounter difficulties while coding these trading signals, AI programs like CHAT GPT can provide assistance in TradeStation’s “easy language” coding.

Step-by-Step Algorithms: How They Drive Trading Decisions

As a trading system pro, I specialize in writing various stock trading algorithms using TradeStation Easy Language. In fact, I have developed some of the most powerful automated trading systems available. You can find more information about these systems in my article on Automated Stock Trading Software. By utilizing the TradeStation software platform, you can easily transform your trading strategy into a fully automated system, capable of executing all stock trades through a broker.

leo-Algorithm-220x300 Mastering Automated Trading: Unleash the Power of Algorithms from Home
Unleashing the Power of Precision: Algorithmic Trading for Smart Investment Decisions.

While automated trading technology has been accessible to stay-at-home stock traders for around fifteen years, institutional traders, such as investment banks, mutual funds, and pension funds, have been utilizing fully automated trading for even longer. These institutions have invested significant resources in developing custom software, which is now available to stay-at-home traders at little to no cost.

In fact, financial researchers estimate that a staggering 80% of trades in the US stock market today, in 2023, are executed by algorithmic trading programs. Thanks to recent software advancements, anyone with a computer can now engage in fully automated trading from the comfort of their own home. You have the opportunity to rival the banks, pension funds, and hedge funds, and seize control of your own financial success.

Full Automation: Letting the Computer Take the Wheel

There are numerous advantages to letting computers handle your trading decisions. Unlike humans, computers remain calm and composed in fast-paced markets, executing orders with lightning speed. Emotionless and fearless, computers ensure consistency and efficiency, enabling you to capitalize on opportunities swiftly.

leo-computer-takes-the-wheel-218x300 Mastering Automated Trading: Unleash the Power of Algorithms from Home
Let the Computer Take the Wheel: Empowering Automated Trading for Optimal Results.

Back in early 2012, when I started trading with the TradeStation computer platform, it opened my eyes to the immense possibilities of automated trading.  But one issue I used to have with TradeStation was the problem of bad data. In the past, when I posted charts on my website using older versions of TradeStation, the data was stored on the hard drive of my computer, allowing me to correct any errors immediately. However, with TradeStation, the data was hosted on their server in Miami, which meant I had to rely on them to rectify any inaccuracies. As a systems trader, this caused numerous problems for me. I preferred the older versions of TradeStation that allowed me to manage and correct my own data.

Bad Data Problem: A Thing of the Past

However, I’m thrilled to report that I no longer encounter this difficulty. In 2023, I can confidently say that bad data is no longer an issue with TradeStation Securities. I’m not sure what changes they made, but I have experienced no problems with data quality. This issue has been effectively resolved.

Maximizing TradeStation’s Features:

Now, let’s explore the remarkable features and capabilities of TradeStation when it comes to trading algorithms like JORDI FUSION. Although I have over 30 years of experience working with TradeStation, I’m writing this article with the assumption that you have no prior knowledge of the platform.

leo-TradeStation2-226x300 Mastering Automated Trading: Unleash the Power of Algorithms from Home
Unleashing the Power of TradeStation: Where Ancient Trading Meets Cutting-Edge Technology.

One of the standout features I love about TradeStation is the ability to run any of my systems or strategies on full automation. With just a desktop computer, I can easily engage in automated trading from the comfort of my home. Full automation means that once I load JORDI FUSION into TradeStation and set up the necessary charts, I can choose to let the computer handle all the trading for me. This has significant implications for me as a trader. I no longer have to be glued to my computer screen while trading; the computer executes all the trades. With my speakers turned on, I receive an automatic voice notification saying “order filled” each time a trade is executed. This means I can go golfing or even trade in overseas markets throughout the night while I sleep soundly. I can wake up in the morning knowing that the computer flawlessly executed all the trades according to my strategy.

You might be wondering, how reliable are automated trading fills? Do they suffer from significant slippage, where there is a notable difference between the system price and the actual execution price? Based on my real-time trading studies, I can confidently say that slippage with automated trading is minimal. In fact, the fills are almost instantaneous, with the system price being hit closely. Any minimal slippage that might occur is outweighed by the overall flawless execution of trades.

Personalized Support: Partnering with TradeStation and Me

The beauty of this approach is that even if you’re a complete novice, with my assistance in setting everything up, you can trade exactly as I do without making a single mistake. You no longer need to worry about trading discipline or the fear of missing out on opportunities. Simply fall asleep and let the computer do the work for you.

Unparalleled Insights: Evaluating System Performance

Another remarkable advantage of trading with TradeStation is the ability to test and track the performance of all systems with various stocks. TradeStation Securities boasts an unparalleled database that allows you to test 100 years of market data in less than an hour with just a few clicks of the mouse. This invaluable research tool helps you select the right strategies and markets for maximizing profits.

With TradeStation, you have the advantage of instantly evaluating system performance in any market and for virtually any time period. You no longer have to trade blindly; the software provides valuable insights.

Cost-Saving Benefits:

leo-saving-money-227x300 Mastering Automated Trading: Unleash the Power of Algorithms from Home
Automated Trading: Unlocking Cost Savings and Maximizing Profits.

This is just a glimpse of the vast capabilities that TradeStation offers for your trading success. However, working with the world’s greatest software not only empowers you but also saves you money. There’s no need to purchase the software separately; it comes included when you open an account with TradeStation Securities. And in 2023, you can open an account with as little as $500. Furthermore, you receive your data free of charge, with only minimal exchange fees to pay.

If you’re trading stocks, the exciting news is that you can trade with zero commissions. This means you can engage in algorithmic trading like JORDI FUSION with as little as three to five thousand dollars and still make a profit.

Guided Every Step of the Way: Assistance for Novices

leo-Assistance-223x300 Mastering Automated Trading: Unleash the Power of Algorithms from Home
Empowering Novice Traders: Expert Guidance and Support for Your Trading Journey.

Let me reiterate that I have no affiliation with TradeStation Securities, and I receive no kickbacks for recommending them. However, if you do decide to open an account with them and utilize one of my trading packages like JORDI FUSION, there is a lot I can do to support you. You don’t have to navigate the trading world alone. I can guide you every step of the way, ensuring you trade exactly like I do. I can provide you with a list of profitable markets, preconfigured workspaces via email, and suggest settings that align with your financial situation and trading style. You can reach out to me anytime because I trade with real money, using the same systems and markets as you. Your struggles are my struggles, and your successes are mine as well.

Trade Like the Pros: Fully Automated Trading from Home

In summary, I consider TradeStation and TradeStation Securities to be a fantastic platform for trading my systems and strategies. All of my material is 100% compatible with TradeStation, and I’m here to offer you all the technical support you need as you work with my materials and TradeStation. With this software, you can trade just like the hedge funds and engage in fully automated trading from the comfort of your own home.

 




 Mastering Automated Trading: Unleash the Power of Algorithms from Home


Friday June 16, 2023, Today Stock Market


    • Today Stock Market

    • Welcome fellow stock traders!  E-MAIL ME AT:   bobburan@juno.com   with questions.  Download nine years of trading performance at the very bottom of this page.  I am Robert Buran and I update Today Stock Market every trading day.  I utilize Short Term Stock Trading wp-content-uploads-2013-03-robertburan Friday June 16, 2023, Today Stock Marketstrategies along with  automated stock trading software and short term stock trading systems to take trades everyday in the U.S. stock market including the NYSE, NASDAQ, and AMEX. I post my trading  positions here along with images and charts.  I include a video of my stock market report on this page every day.

Friday June 16, 2023

The Dow opens +110 and our open trade improves a little (click to enlarge)

OPEN-11-300x169 Friday June 16, 2023, Today Stock Market
 

Fifteen Minutes in  (click to enlarge)
15-minutes-in-1-300x156 Friday June 16, 2023, Today Stock Market
Continued Problems with soft markets (click to enlarge)

leo-Really-Bad-Day-in-Stock-Market-2-230x300 Friday June 16, 2023, Today Stock Market

The Dow closes -99 and this is what we closed out:  PRST +1072, MBOT +6022, INKT +0, SDA +1860, GSIT +1770, CXAI -2800, VSTM +3786, ATXG -3100, ZNTL +2340, YEXT -900
TOTAL = + $10,050
This is what we are holding (click to enlarge)

CLOSE-12-300x159 Friday June 16, 2023, Today Stock Market

 
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Thursday June 15, 2023, Today Stock Market

    • Today Stock Market

    • Welcome fellow stock traders!  E-MAIL ME AT:   bobburan@juno.com   with questions.  Download nine years of trading performance at the very bottom of this page.  I am Robert Buran and I update Today Stock Market every trading day.  I utilize Short Term Stock Trading wp-content-uploads-2013-03-robertburan Thursday June 15, 2023, Today Stock Marketstrategies along with  automated stock trading software and short term stock trading systems to take trades everyday in the U.S. stock market including the NYSE, NASDAQ, and AMEX. I post my trading  positions here along with images and charts.  I include a video of my stock market report on this page every day.

Thursday June 15, 2023

The Dow opens +8 and our open trade improves a little (click to enlarge)

OPEN-10-300x154 Thursday June 15, 2023, Today Stock Market
 

One Hour to Go (click to enlarge)
1-hour-to-go-300x158 Thursday June 15, 2023, Today Stock Market
INKT (click to enlarge)
INKT-300x141 Thursday June 15, 2023, Today Stock Market
The Dow closes +433 and this is what we closed out:  GSIT +1650, BMR +1798, GCT -3774, NERV -432
TOTAL = – $758
This is what we are holding (click to enlarge)
CLOSE-11-300x157 Thursday June 15, 2023, Today Stock Market

 
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Wednesday June 14, 2023, Today Stock Market

    • Today Stock Market

    • Welcome fellow stock traders!  E-MAIL ME AT:   bobburan@juno.com   with questions.  Download nine years of trading performance at the very bottom of this page.  I am Robert Buran and I update Today Stock Market every trading day.  I utilize Short Term Stock Trading wp-content-uploads-2013-03-robertburan Wednesday June 14, 2023, Today Stock Marketstrategies along with  automated stock trading software and short term stock trading systems to take trades everyday in the U.S. stock market including the NYSE, NASDAQ, and AMEX. I post my trading  positions here along with images and charts.  I include a video of my stock market report on this page every day.

Wednesday June 14, 2023

The Dow opens -164 and our open trade shrinks to positive 5K (click to enlarge)

OPEN-9-300x171 Wednesday June 14, 2023, Today Stock Market
 

20 minutes in (click to enlarge)
20-minutes-in-300x163 Wednesday June 14, 2023, Today Stock Market
The Dow closes -242 and this is what we closed out:  PDSB -1485, ZNTL -101, AQST +330, AMC -810, AYX +592, CXAI -2900, MTX +2100, MBOT -2656, DERM -2850, YS -1200, PLAY +$9144
TOTAL = + $164
This is what we are holding (click to enlarge)

CLOSE-10-300x152 Wednesday June 14, 2023, Today Stock Market

 
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Tuesday June 13, 2023, Today Stock Market

    • Today Stock Market

    • Welcome fellow stock traders!  E-MAIL ME AT:   bobburan@juno.com   with questions.  Download nine years of trading performance at the very bottom of this page.  I am Robert Buran and I update Today Stock Market every trading day.  I utilize Short Term Stock Trading wp-content-uploads-2013-03-robertburan Tuesday June 13, 2023, Today Stock Marketstrategies along with  automated stock trading software and short term stock trading systems to take trades everyday in the U.S. stock market including the NYSE, NASDAQ, and AMEX. I post my trading  positions here along with images and charts.  I include a video of my stock market report on this page every day.

Tuesday June 13, 2023

The Dow opens +75 and our open trade jumps to positive 19K (click to enlarge)

OPEN-8-300x158 Tuesday June 13, 2023, Today Stock Market
 

PLAY (click to enlarge)
PLAY-300x145 Tuesday June 13, 2023, Today Stock Market
45 minutes in (click to enlarge)
45-minutes-in-300x154 Tuesday June 13, 2023, Today Stock Market
The Dow closes +123 and this is what we closed out:  SDA +4300, PDSB -2475, MRVL -60, ZNTL -213, GTC +1494
TOTAL = + $3,046
This is what we are holding (click to enlarge)

CLOSE-9-300x136 Tuesday June 13, 2023, Today Stock Market

 
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A Fresh Approach to Debunking Stock Trading Myths: Unraveling the Mystery of Price Movements

A Fresh Approach to Debunking Stock Trading Myths: Unraveling the Mystery of Price Movements

Part 1: Understanding Stock Market Mechanics and the Rule of the Screw

leo-Being-Screwed-230x300 A Fresh Approach to Debunking Stock Trading Myths: Unraveling the Mystery of Price Movements
The Rule of the Screw

If you’re planning to tread the waters of stock trading, a thorough understanding of the stock market price and its fluctuating nature is critical. In essence, you need to discern what drives the stock market. My unique perspective on this subject introduces a principle I’ve coined as the ‘Rule of the Screw.’

The Rule of the Screw posits that stock market price movements are designed to counteract, undermine, and thwart the majority of market players’ best interests. Simply put, it asserts that the stock market will disregard technical indicators and fundamentals if the majority of stock market players act based on these signals.


Part 2: Embracing the Randomness in the Stock Markets

My belief is that stock market price movements are primarily random. While they may not be completely arbitrary, human emotions and judgment, including facets like algorithmic trading, significantly influence them. These various forces exert pressure on the stock market price, culminating in an unpredictable randomness that’s near impossible to foretell accurately.


Part 3: Exploiting Non-random Market Behavior – An Alternative to Technical Analysis

The ‘secret’ to profitable trading in a market ruled by randomness lies in identifying and leveraging the small segment of market behavior that’s not random. Traditional technical analysis, in my opinion, often fails to achieve this. This technique often fosters the illusion of unearthing hidden correlations between price behavior and various indicators.

However, these indicators are as random as the price behavior they strive to predict, leading to a random distribution of profits and losses. Hence, I consider technical analysis a pseudo-science.


Part 4: The Market Momentum Theory: An Analogy with Newton’s Laws

leo-momentum-224x300 A Fresh Approach to Debunking Stock Trading Myths: Unraveling the Mystery of Price Movements
Market Momentum Theory

I propose an alternative to technical analysis, something I call the ‘Market Momentum Theory.’ (For a more detailed explanation, see my article Stock Trading for Dummies.  The theory outlines two fundamental laws of price movement:

  1. If stock market prices rise, the likelihood of them climbing higher is more significant than falling lower.
  2. Conversely, if stock market prices fall, they’re more likely to plunge further than bounce back.

Part 5: Effective Trading Strategies and Overcoming Trading Psychology

From these two simple laws, the cardinal rule of trading emerges: buy when the stock market price ascends and sell when it descends. Many traders and aspiring traders fail to adopt this approach. Instead, they choose to buy when the market falls to secure a better price and hesitate to buy when the market rises because they perceive the price as too high. In doing so, they become a part of the losing majority.


Part 6: Dissecting the Common Misconceptions about Market Entry Points

The lure of perfect trading can often mislead even the smartest traders into committing what I call ‘trading suicide.’ They are led to believe in buying low and selling high, and end up falling prey to this illusion of perfection. However, successful traders understand that trying to time the market perfectly is a futile endeavor.

Instead, one should follow an established trend. If you decide to buy when the price rises, you might feel like you’re getting the short end of the stick. However, by ‘buying high,’ you likely align yourself with the minority and thus enhance your chances of making profits. In essence, you’re playing by the rule of the screw, and this strategy could be your ticket to success in the unpredictable world of stock market trading.


Part 7: Deconstructing the Illusion of Perfect Trading

leo-Deconstructing-Perfection-223x300 A Fresh Approach to Debunking Stock Trading Myths: Unraveling the Mystery of Price Movements
The Deconstructing of Trading Perfection

Advertisement campaigns often paint a fantastical picture of their system’s capabilities, claiming they can buy at the lows and sell at the highs. However, this is merely a pipedream. Even seasoned traders understand that such an ideal scenario is unattainable. Yet, some fall into this trap because it feeds into their desire for perfect trading.

Upon analyzing any chart, our instinct is to buy low and sell high. However, it’s crucial to remember that you cannot consistently buy at the bottom and sell at the top. The more practical approach is to follow an established trend that aligns with your position’s direction. Any attempt to do otherwise is akin to committing ‘trading suicide.’

When you decide to buy a rising market, you may feel as if you’re entering at the worst possible price. It might not be a comfortable decision, nor will it look impressive on the charts. However, by ‘buying high,’ you’re likely aligning with the minority, thus potentially securing profits. In other words, you’re abiding by the rule of the screw.


Part 8: Mastering the Art of Exiting a Position

Just as important as entering a stock market position is knowing when and how to exit it. Popular exit strategies often fall short. Let’s consider two such strategies: the stop and reverse method and the trailing stop method.

The stop and reverse method involves using an indicator-based price. If the system is long one contract, and the market pulls back to the designated price, the system sells two contracts and reverses to a short position. As someone who’s traditionally opposed to shorting the stock market, I have found this strategy to be significantly flawed.


Part 9: Stop and Reverse Strategy: A Losing Game?

Using the NASDAQ futures contract as a test case and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) as an entry signal, I found that the stop and reverse strategy resulted in a loss over the past two years (6/14/21 to 6/13/23).

 

All Trades
spacer A Fresh Approach to Debunking Stock Trading Myths: Unraveling the Mystery of Price Movements
Long Trades
spacer A Fresh Approach to Debunking Stock Trading Myths: Unraveling the Mystery of Price Movements
Short Trades
spacer A Fresh Approach to Debunking Stock Trading Myths: Unraveling the Mystery of Price Movements
Total Net Profit ($4,410.00) ($13,740.00) $9,330.00
Gross Profit $325,635.00 $165,160.00 $160,475.00
Gross Loss ($330,045.00) ($178,900.00) ($151,145.00)
Profit Factor 0.99 0.92 1.06

 

Moreover, it tied up margin capital 100% of the time, making it a suboptimal strategy.

Instead, I tested the same system using the same data (6/14/21 to 6/13/23), but made one significant change. I only went long and used the sell signal as an  exit trigger for all my long positions:

 

All Trades
spacer A Fresh Approach to Debunking Stock Trading Myths: Unraveling the Mystery of Price Movements
Long Trades
spacer A Fresh Approach to Debunking Stock Trading Myths: Unraveling the Mystery of Price Movements
Short Trades
spacer A Fresh Approach to Debunking Stock Trading Myths: Unraveling the Mystery of Price Movements
Total Net Profit $25,765.00 $25,765.00 $0.00
Gross Profit $46,675.00 $46,675.00 $0.00
Gross Loss ($20,910.00) ($20,910.00) $0.00
Profit Factor 2.23 2.23 n/a

 

The results showed a net profit, suggesting that this might be a more effective trading strategy, given the win-loss ratio was more than double.


Part 10: The Inefficiency of Stop and Reverse

Among the myriad of trading strategies I’ve examined, the stop and reverse strategy ranks as the least profitable and least margin efficient. Margin efficiency, which I’ll delve deeper into later, is vital because systems that remain in the market all the time tie up your margin needlessly (see my article,In and Out Trading)  . As markets tend to move sideways about 85% of the time, these systems may leave your margin doing nothing for a significant amount of time, potentially leading to heavy losses due to sideways movement.

By contrast, systems like JORDI FUSION are very margin efficient. They only enter the market when significant movement is detected and usually exit the trade the following day, preventing unnecessary tie-up of your margin money.

Part 11: Stopping the Bleeding

What should you do, however, if your position starts out bad, get worse and then threatens an uncontrolled hemorrhage of your account equity?

leo-Stop-the-Bleeding-230x300 A Fresh Approach to Debunking Stock Trading Myths: Unraveling the Mystery of Price Movements
Stop the Bleeding!

Unfortunately this happens with some of our trades and our ability to keep these losses within a normal distribution pattern is what makes or breaks us as traders. This is a particularly critical issue if you are using Systems without stops on day of entry.

Out of  frustration I developed a simple strategy that probably works better than anything I ever developed. If you are sick of always having your stops run, this simple strategy is going to be a big help. If you got into a trade based on a longer time frame such as a time frame based on daily data you need to develop a stop loss strategy that is based on a shorter time frame.

This is why JORDI FUSION is an improvement over my previous systems using only daily data.  JORDI FUSION uses two data streams, daily data and 15 minute bar data.

To see how looking at two different data streams can improve our analysis you should kick up a chart on your computer screen and set the bars to something like 3 to 10 minutes. If you are following our trading rules you are going to buy when the market goes up. This upward movement should create some kind of upward wave on the intraday chart. You should measure this wave from its top to its bottom and if you are long the market you should place your stop at the point that represents a 75% retracement of that wave. If you are short the market you simply reverse the process. Hence my rule for placing your protective stop is:

Place your protective stop at a point that represents a 75% retracement (5/8 or 6/8) of the wave that got you in.

Let’s look at an illustration:

Chart-Fig21-300x182 A Fresh Approach to Debunking Stock Trading Myths: Unraveling the Mystery of Price Movements
75% Retracement Stop

 

Here again you see why the “buying high” strategy doesn’t sell systems. Buying point B (which is the high) looks like a terrible place to enter this market. Why not sell at point B? Or if we have to go long why didn’t we buy at point L (which is the low)? Don’t despair.

Because you feel that way others will feel that way also and so they, the majority of market players, won’t buy because it’s too scary. The market in the best tradition of the “Rule of the Screw” will sense this hesitation by the timid majority and move much higher. That will encourage the timid majority and they will then jump into this market in a buying frenzy.

At that time you will calmly sell your positions back to the frenzied majority and take your profits.  The whole scenario looks something like this (click to enlarge):

Chart-Fig31-300x230 A Fresh Approach to Debunking Stock Trading Myths: Unraveling the Mystery of Price Movements
Taking Profits

 

But the real point I’m making is that when you first get into these trades they seldom look good and you need to use the 75% retracement rule to place a stop so as to give yourself some peace of mind. If you go back and look at Figure 2 you can see how this stop was calculated. I measure from point L (low) to point H (high) and take 75% of that and subtract that from point H to determine the stop which is equivalent to the price shown at point SS (sell stop).

Part 12: “Applying Fibonacci Ratios to Stop Placement”

The more perceptive of you may notice that I seem to be playing around with Fibonacci ratios. When we decide to place a stop at “75% retracement of the wave that got you in,” we’re essentially suggesting that if the market isn’t supported at the 5/8 or .618 Fibonacci retracement point, it’s a “Fibonacci failure” and signals a trend reversal. It’s at this point we need to steer clear of a collapsing market.

Trust me, you’ll be very pleased to have exited the market if these stops are hit, and it’ll be unusual for the market to “tag” these stops and then move upwards. This strategy proves to be our most effective stop-loss method.

Some of you who are technical analysts might feel a bit vindicated. Here I am, after having declared that technical analysis is largely nonsense, but I’m now using Fibonacci ratios for stop placement. Of course, the ratio .618 wasn’t conceived by a technical analyst. Known to ancient Greek and Egyptian mathematicians as the Golden Ratio or the Golden Mean, it was applied in the construction of the Parthenon and the Great Pyramid of Giza.

Part 13: “Summary and Conclusions Regarding Stock Price Movement”

These principles—if stock prices rise, there is a greater probability they will continue to climb, and if stock prices drop, there is a greater probability they will keep falling—are enduring, will not fail, and cannot alter in the future.

Upon initiating a trade based on these principles, we’ll dismiss traditional “stop and reverse” and “trailing stop” exit strategies. Instead, we will:

  1. Take profits only when the market is moving strongly in our favor.
  2. Place our protective stop at 75% retracement of the wave that got us in.

You may think these market theories are overly simple to be practical. However, before dismissing these ideas, I encourage you to download my 10-plus years of trading results with the JORDI systems, available at the very bottom of the home page of the website. This performance is as good as trading gets when compared with most.

I gleaned these rules from the marketplace and while attending the “School of Hard Knocks.” They may appear simple on the surface, but implementing them in the marketplace is a more complex process.

These principles can be seamlessly integrated into your short-term stock trading. Later, I’ll show you how you can consistently gain an edge on the stock market and automate a stock market trading system using these same straightforward rules. Using these strategies and principles of stock market price, you needn’t worry that these fundamental rules will fail or cease to function. They can’t stop working anymore than Newton’s Law of Gravity can stop working.

Consider revisiting my market momentum theory in the article,Stock Trading for Dummies.

I genuinely believe that if we stop obsessing over complex charts and formulas and focus instead on simple up and down stock market price movement, we can outperform the best trading professionals. Call this approach back-to-the-basics trading or any name you prefer. I call it financial security.




 A Fresh Approach to Debunking Stock Trading Myths: Unraveling the Mystery of Price Movements


Monday June 12, 2023, Today Stock Market

    • Today Stock Market

    • Welcome fellow stock traders!  E-MAIL ME AT:   bobburan@juno.com   with questions.  Download nine years of trading performance at the very bottom of this page.  I am Robert Buran and I update Today Stock Market every trading day.  I utilize Short Term Stock Trading wp-content-uploads-2013-03-robertburan Monday June 12, 2023, Today Stock Marketstrategies along with  automated stock trading software and short term stock trading systems to take trades everyday in the U.S. stock market including the NYSE, NASDAQ, and AMEX. I post my trading  positions here along with images and charts.  I include a video of my stock market report on this page every day.

Monday June 12, 2023

The Dow opens +52 but our open trade remains negative (click to enlarge)

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SDA (click to enlarge)
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The Dow closes +172 and this is what we closed out:  TLS -3828, MAX +660, MRVL +110, AYX -2175
TOTAL = – $5,233
This is what we are holding (click to enlarge)

CLOSE-8-300x156 Monday June 12, 2023, Today Stock Market

 
twitter Monday June 12, 2023, Today Stock Market