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Today Stock Market
- Welcome fellow stock traders! E-MAIL ME AT: bobburan@juno.com with questions. Download nine years of trading performance at the very bottom of this page. I am Robert Buran and I update Today Stock Market every trading day. I utilize Short Term Stock Trading strategies along with automated stock trading software and short term stock trading systems to take trades everyday in the U.S. stock market including the NYSE, NASDAQ, and AMEX. I post my trading positions here along with images and charts. I include a video of my stock market report on this page every day.
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Month: June 2023
A Fresh Approach to Debunking Stock Trading Myths: Unraveling the Mystery of Price Movements
A Fresh Approach to Debunking Stock Trading Myths: Unraveling the Mystery of Price Movements
Part 1: Understanding Stock Market Mechanics and the Rule of the Screw
If you’re planning to tread the waters of stock trading, a thorough understanding of the stock market price and its fluctuating nature is critical. In essence, you need to discern what drives the stock market. My unique perspective on this subject introduces a principle I’ve coined as the ‘Rule of the Screw.’
The Rule of the Screw posits that stock market price movements are designed to counteract, undermine, and thwart the majority of market players’ best interests. Simply put, it asserts that the stock market will disregard technical indicators and fundamentals if the majority of stock market players act based on these signals.
Part 2: Embracing the Randomness in the Stock Markets
My belief is that stock market price movements are primarily random. While they may not be completely arbitrary, human emotions and judgment, including facets like algorithmic trading, significantly influence them. These various forces exert pressure on the stock market price, culminating in an unpredictable randomness that’s near impossible to foretell accurately.
Part 3: Exploiting Non-random Market Behavior – An Alternative to Technical Analysis
The ‘secret’ to profitable trading in a market ruled by randomness lies in identifying and leveraging the small segment of market behavior that’s not random. Traditional technical analysis, in my opinion, often fails to achieve this. This technique often fosters the illusion of unearthing hidden correlations between price behavior and various indicators.
However, these indicators are as random as the price behavior they strive to predict, leading to a random distribution of profits and losses. Hence, I consider technical analysis a pseudo-science.
Part 4: The Market Momentum Theory: An Analogy with Newton’s Laws
I propose an alternative to technical analysis, something I call the ‘Market Momentum Theory.’ (For a more detailed explanation, see my article Stock Trading for Dummies. The theory outlines two fundamental laws of price movement:
- If stock market prices rise, the likelihood of them climbing higher is more significant than falling lower.
- Conversely, if stock market prices fall, they’re more likely to plunge further than bounce back.
Part 5: Effective Trading Strategies and Overcoming Trading Psychology
From these two simple laws, the cardinal rule of trading emerges: buy when the stock market price ascends and sell when it descends. Many traders and aspiring traders fail to adopt this approach. Instead, they choose to buy when the market falls to secure a better price and hesitate to buy when the market rises because they perceive the price as too high. In doing so, they become a part of the losing majority.
Part 6: Dissecting the Common Misconceptions about Market Entry Points
The lure of perfect trading can often mislead even the smartest traders into committing what I call ‘trading suicide.’ They are led to believe in buying low and selling high, and end up falling prey to this illusion of perfection. However, successful traders understand that trying to time the market perfectly is a futile endeavor.
Instead, one should follow an established trend. If you decide to buy when the price rises, you might feel like you’re getting the short end of the stick. However, by ‘buying high,’ you likely align yourself with the minority and thus enhance your chances of making profits. In essence, you’re playing by the rule of the screw, and this strategy could be your ticket to success in the unpredictable world of stock market trading.
Part 7: Deconstructing the Illusion of Perfect Trading
Advertisement campaigns often paint a fantastical picture of their system’s capabilities, claiming they can buy at the lows and sell at the highs. However, this is merely a pipedream. Even seasoned traders understand that such an ideal scenario is unattainable. Yet, some fall into this trap because it feeds into their desire for perfect trading.
Upon analyzing any chart, our instinct is to buy low and sell high. However, it’s crucial to remember that you cannot consistently buy at the bottom and sell at the top. The more practical approach is to follow an established trend that aligns with your position’s direction. Any attempt to do otherwise is akin to committing ‘trading suicide.’
When you decide to buy a rising market, you may feel as if you’re entering at the worst possible price. It might not be a comfortable decision, nor will it look impressive on the charts. However, by ‘buying high,’ you’re likely aligning with the minority, thus potentially securing profits. In other words, you’re abiding by the rule of the screw.
Part 8: Mastering the Art of Exiting a Position
Just as important as entering a stock market position is knowing when and how to exit it. Popular exit strategies often fall short. Let’s consider two such strategies: the stop and reverse method and the trailing stop method.
The stop and reverse method involves using an indicator-based price. If the system is long one contract, and the market pulls back to the designated price, the system sells two contracts and reverses to a short position. As someone who’s traditionally opposed to shorting the stock market, I have found this strategy to be significantly flawed.
Part 9: Stop and Reverse Strategy: A Losing Game?
Using the NASDAQ futures contract as a test case and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) as an entry signal, I found that the stop and reverse strategy resulted in a loss over the past two years (6/14/21 to 6/13/23).
Moreover, it tied up margin capital 100% of the time, making it a suboptimal strategy.
Instead, I tested the same system using the same data (6/14/21 to 6/13/23), but made one significant change. I only went long and used the sell signal as an exit trigger for all my long positions:
The results showed a net profit, suggesting that this might be a more effective trading strategy, given the win-loss ratio was more than double.
Part 10: The Inefficiency of Stop and Reverse
Among the myriad of trading strategies I’ve examined, the stop and reverse strategy ranks as the least profitable and least margin efficient. Margin efficiency, which I’ll delve deeper into later, is vital because systems that remain in the market all the time tie up your margin needlessly (see my article,In and Out Trading) . As markets tend to move sideways about 85% of the time, these systems may leave your margin doing nothing for a significant amount of time, potentially leading to heavy losses due to sideways movement.
By contrast, systems like JORDI FUSION are very margin efficient. They only enter the market when significant movement is detected and usually exit the trade the following day, preventing unnecessary tie-up of your margin money.
Part 11: Stopping the Bleeding
What should you do, however, if your position starts out bad, get worse and then threatens an uncontrolled hemorrhage of your account equity?
Unfortunately this happens with some of our trades and our ability to keep these losses within a normal distribution pattern is what makes or breaks us as traders. This is a particularly critical issue if you are using Systems without stops on day of entry.
Out of frustration I developed a simple strategy that probably works better than anything I ever developed. If you are sick of always having your stops run, this simple strategy is going to be a big help. If you got into a trade based on a longer time frame such as a time frame based on daily data you need to develop a stop loss strategy that is based on a shorter time frame.
This is why JORDI FUSION is an improvement over my previous systems using only daily data. JORDI FUSION uses two data streams, daily data and 15 minute bar data.
To see how looking at two different data streams can improve our analysis you should kick up a chart on your computer screen and set the bars to something like 3 to 10 minutes. If you are following our trading rules you are going to buy when the market goes up. This upward movement should create some kind of upward wave on the intraday chart. You should measure this wave from its top to its bottom and if you are long the market you should place your stop at the point that represents a 75% retracement of that wave. If you are short the market you simply reverse the process. Hence my rule for placing your protective stop is:
Place your protective stop at a point that represents a 75% retracement (5/8 or 6/8) of the wave that got you in.
Let’s look at an illustration:
Here again you see why the “buying high” strategy doesn’t sell systems. Buying point B (which is the high) looks like a terrible place to enter this market. Why not sell at point B? Or if we have to go long why didn’t we buy at point L (which is the low)? Don’t despair.
Because you feel that way others will feel that way also and so they, the majority of market players, won’t buy because it’s too scary. The market in the best tradition of the “Rule of the Screw” will sense this hesitation by the timid majority and move much higher. That will encourage the timid majority and they will then jump into this market in a buying frenzy.
At that time you will calmly sell your positions back to the frenzied majority and take your profits. The whole scenario looks something like this (click to enlarge):
But the real point I’m making is that when you first get into these trades they seldom look good and you need to use the 75% retracement rule to place a stop so as to give yourself some peace of mind. If you go back and look at Figure 2 you can see how this stop was calculated. I measure from point L (low) to point H (high) and take 75% of that and subtract that from point H to determine the stop which is equivalent to the price shown at point SS (sell stop).
Part 12: “Applying Fibonacci Ratios to Stop Placement”
The more perceptive of you may notice that I seem to be playing around with Fibonacci ratios. When we decide to place a stop at “75% retracement of the wave that got you in,” we’re essentially suggesting that if the market isn’t supported at the 5/8 or .618 Fibonacci retracement point, it’s a “Fibonacci failure” and signals a trend reversal. It’s at this point we need to steer clear of a collapsing market.
Trust me, you’ll be very pleased to have exited the market if these stops are hit, and it’ll be unusual for the market to “tag” these stops and then move upwards. This strategy proves to be our most effective stop-loss method.
Some of you who are technical analysts might feel a bit vindicated. Here I am, after having declared that technical analysis is largely nonsense, but I’m now using Fibonacci ratios for stop placement. Of course, the ratio .618 wasn’t conceived by a technical analyst. Known to ancient Greek and Egyptian mathematicians as the Golden Ratio or the Golden Mean, it was applied in the construction of the Parthenon and the Great Pyramid of Giza.
Part 13: “Summary and Conclusions Regarding Stock Price Movement”
These principles—if stock prices rise, there is a greater probability they will continue to climb, and if stock prices drop, there is a greater probability they will keep falling—are enduring, will not fail, and cannot alter in the future.
Upon initiating a trade based on these principles, we’ll dismiss traditional “stop and reverse” and “trailing stop” exit strategies. Instead, we will:
- Take profits only when the market is moving strongly in our favor.
- Place our protective stop at 75% retracement of the wave that got us in.
You may think these market theories are overly simple to be practical. However, before dismissing these ideas, I encourage you to download my 10-plus years of trading results with the JORDI systems, available at the very bottom of the home page of the website. This performance is as good as trading gets when compared with most.
I gleaned these rules from the marketplace and while attending the “School of Hard Knocks.” They may appear simple on the surface, but implementing them in the marketplace is a more complex process.
These principles can be seamlessly integrated into your short-term stock trading. Later, I’ll show you how you can consistently gain an edge on the stock market and automate a stock market trading system using these same straightforward rules. Using these strategies and principles of stock market price, you needn’t worry that these fundamental rules will fail or cease to function. They can’t stop working anymore than Newton’s Law of Gravity can stop working.
Consider revisiting my market momentum theory in the article,Stock Trading for Dummies.
I genuinely believe that if we stop obsessing over complex charts and formulas and focus instead on simple up and down stock market price movement, we can outperform the best trading professionals. Call this approach back-to-the-basics trading or any name you prefer. I call it financial security.
Monday June 12, 2023, Today Stock Market
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Today Stock Market
- Welcome fellow stock traders! E-MAIL ME AT: bobburan@juno.com with questions. Download nine years of trading performance at the very bottom of this page. I am Robert Buran and I update Today Stock Market every trading day. I utilize Short Term Stock Trading strategies along with automated stock trading software and short term stock trading systems to take trades everyday in the U.S. stock market including the NYSE, NASDAQ, and AMEX. I post my trading positions here along with images and charts. I include a video of my stock market report on this page every day.
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Monday June 12, 2023
Friday June 9, 2023, Today Stock Market
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Today Stock Market
- Welcome fellow stock traders! E-MAIL ME AT: bobburan@juno.com with questions. Download nine years of trading performance at the very bottom of this page. I am Robert Buran and I update Today Stock Market every trading day. I utilize Short Term Stock Trading strategies along with automated stock trading software and short term stock trading systems to take trades everyday in the U.S. stock market including the NYSE, NASDAQ, and AMEX. I post my trading positions here along with images and charts. I include a video of my stock market report on this page every day.
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Friday June 9, 2023
How to Trade Stocks: Key Secrets and Strategies for Stock Market Investment Success
Understanding How to Trade Stocks and How NOT to Trade Stocks
Navigating the stock market can seem daunting, but armed with the right trading strategies, it doesn’t have to be. As a seasoned trader, I’m here to share some of my most treasured secrets that can guide you in your stock trading journey. These trading strategies may defy conventional categorization of stock trading methodology, but they are the result of my long-standing experience in the field.
Many conventional ideas about how to trade stocks don’t align with my personal experiences. If you’re ready to challenge conventional wisdom and learn about automated trading systems, stock market investment and more, stick with me throughout this long article. You will not be disappointed.
In this article, I will disclose a critical theory of financial market behavior and debunk the common myth of “The Atomic-Bomb-Instruction-Book theory” of market behavior. Further, I will present highly profitable programmable trading systems, and explain the theory that makes them profitable. If you’re a frustrated small stock investor, this article is a must-read.
DIRTY LITTLE SECRETS
At the start, let’s discuss a dirty little secret that has less to do with how to trade stocks successfully than it does with how NOT to trade. Financial experts and brokers, unfortunately, may not always have your best interest at heart. If you’re following their advice, it’s unlikely you’ll do anything more than contribute to their salaries and retirement.
These Wall Street insiders were instrumental in the 2008 economic crash. However, the market has since recovered, and we have seen a full-blown bull market that did not see any sign of weakness until 2022. Things may have gotten a little rough in the summer of 2015 for example ( see the crash of 8-24-15), but the current state of the market, even in 2023, is looking optimistic.
Trading is good and the economy will certainly recover in 2023.This is a prime time for stock market investment. You don’t need to buy my software to do well in this market – keep reading to find out how you can succeed on your own.
Do It Yourself Stock Trading
If you want to make money in the stock market, the best approach is to do it yourself (see Stock Investors). So, how do you navigate DIY stock trading? Do you need to study companies, economics, or even delve into technical analysis? Emphatically, I say no. All you need to make it in this market is a simple automated trading approach and the discipline and willingness to follow your strategies. One of my algorithms, like JORDI FUSION, might help.
I have been trading using automated trading systems for nearly 35 years. Starting with practically nothing, I have built a successful trading career. In fact, the only thing I care about concerning brokers is that I pay them the bare minimum for transaction costs. And now with zero commission trading Nirvana is here!
Understanding Automated Stock Trading
When I talk about automated stock trading, I’m not suggesting you let a computer do everything. What you delegate to a computer is the decision-making process – to buy or sell a given market and to do it while you are sleeping and away from your computer. But you are still going to have to pick the stocks my algorithm is going to work with. This manual stock selection process is central to the success of JORDI FUSION, and our choices are enhanced using artificial intelligence.
Understanding Stock Market Behavior: Simplicity Over Complexity
It’s a common belief propagated by brokers, market advisers, and well-intentioned individuals that understanding stock market behavior is akin to deciphering an instruction manual for constructing an atomic bomb. They imply that a truly profitable automated trading system, one that accurately predicts market behavior and generates consistent profits, would necessitate a level of complexity beyond the grasp of most people.
Throughout my years as a successful trader, I have encountered many individuals who have been ensnared by this mindset in their pursuit of profitable trading strategies. One story that particularly stands out involves a highly accomplished engineer.
An Unexpected Perspective on Stock Market Investment
This engineer was renowned for his creative ideas, which had earned him significant wealth. However, his ambitions extended beyond his current achievements. He had set his sights on developing a definitive mathematical formula that could predict all market behavior. With his profound confidence in his mathematical prowess, he envisioned this formula being extensive, possibly spanning over 50 pages.
I recall vividly an interview with this individual, during which we deliberated on the need to fortify his home against potential threats. The logic was simple: upon discovering our formula to predict all market behavior, we would inevitably draw attention, likely necessitating security measures akin to a high-security military base. In essence, we would become a financial superpower.
Notably, this engineer wasn’t delusional; his brilliance was undeniable. However, his line of thinking is an extreme illustration of a mindset that I have observed in several other bright individuals, all aspiring to discover the ‘Holy Grail’ of market prediction.
The Most Crucial Trading Strategy: Embrace Market Randomness
As a seasoned trader, I am inclined to share with you a critical element of my trading strategy: an accurate formula for predicting market behavior. To best understand it, let’s engage in a simple demonstration.
Find an open space with soft grass, bring along a tennis ball, a pen, and a notebook. Standing in the center, look around and write down where you think the ball will land when you throw it. Close your eyes, start spinning around until you’re on the verge of falling, then throw the ball as hard as you can. Open your eyes, note where the ball landed and compare it with your prediction.
This exercise illustrates a fundamental principle of market behavior: a majority of market movement is random. Only a minor fraction of it is non-random, hence only slightly predictable. This insight debunks the notion that the secret to market movement can be unlocked with complex mathematics. Elementary math will suffice.
When you come across an advertisement for a trading system claiming 90% accuracy, treat it with skepticism. High accuracy predictions from data that is predominantly random are more of a fantasy than a reality. Remember, your trading approach should be realistic, taking into consideration the randomness and unpredictability inherent in the stock market. This is a key secret to understanding how to trade stocks.
The Power of Systematic Trading
The key to becoming a successful trader lies in simplicity. When you’re dealing with market data that is largely random, the most reliable way to identify the predictable component is by sticking to straightforward strategies with minimal parameters.
Consider this example of a streamlined stock market trading system: see automated trading systems. At the end of a trading day, subtract the day’s LOW from its HIGH, then take half of that value and add it to the CLOSE. For instance, if on Monday, WUZOO reached a high of 20, a low of 10, and closed at 14, the calculation would look like this: 20 (High) – 10 (Low) = 10. Half of 10 is 5, and 5 plus 14 (Close) equals 19. This number, (.5(H-L)) +C, represents the market price at which you should consider buying on Tuesday. If the buy price is reached on Tuesday, maintain the position until the market opens on Thursday, then sell. This straightforward system has the smallest number of parameters possible.
The Beauty of Simplicity in Stock Market Investment
Having conducted market research since 1984, I can confidently vouch for the effectiveness of this simple system, even without detailed programming or exhaustive testing. For those skeptical about the power of simplicity, I’ll present some data and test results. To maintain clarity and brevity, I will limit the data here, though I’d certainly use more if I were to defend this theory in a court of law.
I randomly selected four markets from the top of my list of stocks I previously traded, organized alphabetically: ADCT, ADSK, AMD, and ABGX.
For one year, I tested each market using this straightforward trading system. I allocated $10,000 to each trade, meaning if a stock was trading at $5.00, you’d buy 2000 shares, or if it was trading at $50.00, you’d buy 200 shares, and so on. I tested ADCT, ADSK, and AMD from mid-January 2009 to mid-January 2010, and ABGX from mid-August 2000 to mid-August 2001 as a check against correlated markets.
In the realm of stock market trading and trading on margin, it’s feasible to trade all four of these markets simultaneously with about $10,000 in cash. You would also rarely receive a margin call on a trading system that exits the trade at the open of the third day, as you would have already exited the trade by the time a margin call arrives.
The net profits for each market were: ADCT $2,376, ADSK $2,401, AMD $4,308, ABGX $7,299. Aggregating the numbers for all four markets, the performance looks like this:
- Net Profit = $16,385
- Gross Profit = $35,604
- Gross Loss = $19,219
- Number of Trades = 111
- Number of Wins = 72
- Number of Losses = 39
- % Profit = 65%
- Average Trade (win-loss) = $148
- Maximum Intra-Day Drawdown = -$2,848
This demonstrates quite decent performance for trading primarily random price behavior. You can replicate this test across various markets and extend data as far back as needed, and you’ll likely observe similar results. While it’s not a miraculous solution, it’s a practical approach to navigating the market’s randomness while safeguarding your trading capital.
A proficient trader can leverage such performance to achieve a 100% annual return on investment. And with such returns, you can significantly increase your wealth.
Simplicity is the key
My Three Decades of Real-Time Trading Experience
I’ve been engaged in this style of trading in real time for over thirty years. Despite dealing with volatile markets, I haven’t had to bunker down in a fortress with high walls or electric fences. Let me share with you an open secret of the marketplace: THERE ARE NO TRADING SECRETS. The strategies I publish here won’t sway the market behavior, nor will they affect my system performance. Posting my techniques on a website doesn’t change this fact.
This strategy is far from being rocket science. Given an evening, I could come up with four more systems of equal efficacy. With a dedicated effort, I could develop approximately 100 such systems in a month. I know of several successful fund managers who adopt this exact approach. When managing a $100,000,000 fund, having a multitude of trading signals is beneficial, and this strategy is perfectly suited to that.
An Ideal Approach for the Small Investor
This approach isn’t limited to big fund managers; it also works wonders for small investors.
I like to capitalize on the short-term nature of this kind of system and apply it to numerous markets. With short-term stock trading, we adopt a hit-and-run approach, spreading our investments across a broad spectrum of markets, and we trade frequently. I’m currently managing around 50 stocks with a similar trading system I’ve named “JORDI FUSION”. In some of my accounts, I invest no more than a thousand dollars in a single trade (or only $500 on margin). Consequently, $20,000 covers the margin requirement for 50 stocks. However, you could feasibly cover 10 to 12 stocks with just $3,000. Trading across 50 stocks offers significant protection against steep draw-downs. When you’re trading that many markets, there always seems to be a silver lining, even on bad days.
That’s precisely why I advocate for the use of mechanical trading, automated stock trading systems for trading stocks. It’s impractical to analyze 50 companies or monitor 50 markets simultaneously. But, with these simple systems, a computer can track everything and execute the trades for me; fully automated trading is fantastic. Every day, I sit comfortably in front of computers sometimes in my pajamas, sipping coffee, and capitalizing on market movements—most of the time, anyway!
For small investors, the marketplace need not be an intimidating landscape. If you develop a simple short-term trading strategy and apply it systematically, methodically, and with discipline, you can outperform the majority of traders, both professional and amateur. Don’t be fooled by the Wall Street professionals with their big salaries and polished exteriors—they are not infallible. My advice to you, the small investor, is to engage the market with robust, systematic, automated trading. Understanding and implementing this approach is a vital part of mastering how to trade.
Thursday June 8, 2023, Today Stock Market
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Today Stock Market
- Welcome fellow stock traders! E-MAIL ME AT: bobburan@juno.com with questions. Download nine years of trading performance at the very bottom of this page. I am Robert Buran and I update Today Stock Market every trading day. I utilize Short Term Stock Trading strategies along with automated stock trading software and short term stock trading systems to take trades everyday in the U.S. stock market including the NYSE, NASDAQ, and AMEX. I post my trading positions here along with images and charts. I include a video of my stock market report on this page every day.
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Thursday June 8, 2023
Wednesday June 7, 2023, Today Stock Market
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Today Stock Market
- Welcome fellow stock traders! E-MAIL ME AT: bobburan@juno.com with questions. Download nine years of trading performance at the very bottom of this page. I am Robert Buran and I update Today Stock Market every trading day. I utilize Short Term Stock Trading strategies along with automated stock trading software and short term stock trading systems to take trades everyday in the U.S. stock market including the NYSE, NASDAQ, and AMEX. I post my trading positions here along with images and charts. I include a video of my stock market report on this page every day.
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Wednesday June 7, 2023
Tuesday June 6, 2023, Today Stock Market
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Today Stock Market
- Welcome fellow stock traders! E-MAIL ME AT: bobburan@juno.com with questions. Download nine years of trading performance at the very bottom of this page. I am Robert Buran and I update Today Stock Market every trading day. I utilize Short Term Stock Trading strategies along with automated stock trading software and short term stock trading systems to take trades everyday in the U.S. stock market including the NYSE, NASDAQ, and AMEX. I post my trading positions here along with images and charts. I include a video of my stock market report on this page every day.
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Tuesday June 6, 2023
Monday June 5, 2023, Today Stock Market
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Today Stock Market
- Welcome fellow stock traders! E-MAIL ME AT: bobburan@juno.com with questions. Download nine years of trading performance at the very bottom of this page. I am Robert Buran and I update Today Stock Market every trading day. I utilize Short Term Stock Trading strategies along with automated stock trading software and short term stock trading systems to take trades everyday in the U.S. stock market including the NYSE, NASDAQ, and AMEX. I post my trading positions here along with images and charts. I include a video of my stock market report on this page every day.
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Monday June 5, 2023
Friday June 2, 2023, Today Stock Market
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Today Stock Market
- Welcome fellow stock traders! E-MAIL ME AT: bobburan@juno.com with questions. Download nine years of trading performance at the very bottom of this page. I am Robert Buran and I update Today Stock Market every trading day. I utilize Short Term Stock Trading strategies along with automated stock trading software and short term stock trading systems to take trades everyday in the U.S. stock market including the NYSE, NASDAQ, and AMEX. I post my trading positions here along with images and charts. I include a video of my stock market report on this page every day.
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Friday June 2, 2023