How do you get Rich?

How do you get Rich?

 

wp-content-uploads-2013-01-robertburan1 How do you get Rich?   How do you get rich trading only $10,000?

How-to-get-rich-1 How do you get Rich?
Getting Rich

Trading $10,000 into a small fortune is clearly the ultimate challenge.  But regardless I am a little uncomfortable writing this article because it sounds a little sleazy.  But this is not about selling snake oil.   I am just trying to give some practical advise based on my personal experience.

Do you have only a small amount of money and yet dream of becoming rich ?  Maybe all you have is $3,000 or perhaps you have no cash, but perhaps you could borrow $10,000?

Can a $10,000 account be traded into a small fortune?  My unequivocal answer is yes.

Is that an easy task?  No, it may be the toughest thing you have ever attempted, but I am going to offer you some ideas and tools that may help you.

The information on this web site is absolutely free so take your time and read everything you want.  In fact you SHOULD read everything.  What I do for a living is not for everybody.  Call me,  Robert Buran aka Trader Bob, at 702 490 5317, and talk to me if you would like.  I promise I will not try to sell you anything.  I can listen; before I was a trader I was a psychologist. And you can talk to me for free about getting rich!

How-to-get-rich-2 How do you get Rich?
Making Money Trading

But you will have to learn many things.  This is NOT a get rich scheme and let me repeat once more, this is not easy.

But you do not have to be brilliant; you just need to be persistent.

How I started thinking about “How do you get Rich?

About 15 years ago I wrote a book, How I Quit my Job and Turned $6,000 into a Half Million Trading. Well I can’t say I got really rich and I can’t say I got rich fast either.   Some might say my accomplishment was modest.  In fact I took 6 years to accumulate that half million dollars.  I believed in becoming rich slowly.  I did not compound all my profits and I took money out of my trading account to live on.  My trading account was seldom over $100,000.  But the indisputable fact was that I turned $6,000 into a half million bucks.

I also did something practically no other market guru has ever done, before or since.  I published most of my broker statements and offered a reward to anyone who could prove they were fakes.  To date there have been no takers.

I would estimate I have made about three million dollars trading my own money in about 20 years.  Again I made those millions starting with only $6,000 of borrowed money.

I am not the Person you would think could answer the question, How do you get Rich?

If you think my bold proposal, to turn $10,000 into a fortune, is absurd, please understand that these three million dollars were made by a guy who had no formal investment training whatsoever and who typically fell asleep during investment seminars.  In fact I find the whole subject of market fundamental analysis boring and I do not even know the names of half the companies whose stock I trade.

I would describe myself as a pretty ordinary guy who has developed over a 20 year period some pretty extraordinary ideas about trading markets.  These ideas that I have worked with for nearly 25 years have the goal of yielding maximum investment returns while keeping risk low.   When I say maximum returns I am talking something around  50 % to 250% annual returns on an original investment.  This is about the range of returns that I have realized trading my own money over many years.

To make $500,000 on $6,000 in 6 years you need an average yield of around 125% compounded.  But of course I did not compound the money; in fact I took most of the money out and used it to live on.  And so my yields actually were higher than 125%.

How-to-get-rich-3 How do you get Rich?
A Good Trader

In fact I believe I have the best stock trading programs in the world and I could care less who laughs.

So perhaps you ask,  “does becoming rich mean I have to bet the ranch to make this kind of money?”  Absolutely not and that is why I am suggesting starting with only $10,000.  Trade your $10,000 on margin and that will give you $20,000 to work with.  Let’s do it.

Trading this modest amount into a small fortune in the stock market is our goal and this is what this web site is all about.  Stay with me and I will show you the secrets of Short Term Stock Trading for the small investor.   And rest assured I will most certainly answer the question, How do you get Rich?

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I am a trading system pro and have been trading markets and have been involved with trading system development and the programming of trading system software for 25 years. “Today Stock Market” is my opportunity to share with you some of my trading experience while discussing stock market news and giving my daily stock market update.





 How do you get Rich?


Trader Bob

About Me

 

wp-content-uploads-2013-01-robertburan1 Trader BobMy name is Robert Buran and I live in Reno Nevada.  I was born on September 14, 1943 in Madison Wisconsin.  I graduated from Madison West High School in 1961.  I earned a Bachelors degree in English and Spanish, and a Master’s degree and EDS in school psychology, all from the University of Wisconsin.  I practiced psychology in Alpena Michigan and Redlands California for about 15 years.  I left psychology and became a full time commodities futures trader in 1988.

ERW-300x245 Trader Bob

I have been a trader and TradeStation programer for over 20 years. My stock trading systems are outside the box and I post them on the web every day.

I am a single dad, age 72,  and raise my only child, a 14 year old gifted male 9th grader, unassisted.

In my “spare time” I write articles about health, diet and age reversal and I run a web site at  http://www.loseweightgetyounger.com

Want to contact me?  I should be able to get back with you via E-mail within a few hours.

E-mail:  bobburan@juno.com

 

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Stop Loss Order

Stop Loss Order

 wp-content-uploads-2013-01-robertburan1 Stop Loss Order

So what exactly is a stop loss order?

A stop loss order is an order that you place online or with a broker to buy or sell a position when a certain price is reached.  If you are short a market you set a buy stop and if long you set a sell stop.  The idea behind a stop loss order is, as its name implies, is to prevent you from experiencing a serious loss because of adverse price movement.  For example if you own 1000 shares of XYZ you bought at 100.00 and you want to limit your loss to 20 % you would enter a stop loss order to sell 1000 shares at 80.00 stop.  If the market then falls to 80.00 or lower your stop loss order becomes a market order and your position is liquidated.

To the unsophisticated trader it may sound like placing stop loss orders is always a good idea.  After all do not all traders want to limit their losses?  It may sound like trading heresy, but I think stops are not as important as many traders think.  There is a lot of nonsense written about trading, but one of the more amusing things I have read is about the importance of “loving your stops”.  Of course what the writer was trying to convey is the importance of protecting your stock market positions from large losses by employing some kind of stock trading stop loss.

Stop loss orders may not always be a good idea.

Stop-loss-1 Stop Loss Order
Stop Loss

Stop Loss Order

However, let me say at the outset that I do not love my stops. In fact I hate my stops and only use them when absolutely necessary.  The problem is that stop losses do just that, they stop you from losing additional money.  The problem is that nobody wants to lose money and so most people will tend to make their stops too shallow and the result is they never lose a whole lot of money on any given trade, but almost all their trades go to losses and so in the long run they still lose a lot of money.

Although I am not recommending you trade this way you need to understand that under Utopian trading conditions you can make far more money without using stops than you can with using stops.  Just about any kind of market entry will eventually go to a profit if the position is never exited with a stop loss.

I have always known this but the point was recently driven home in a very practical way when I had to adapt the trading system I post on this web site to accommodate government regulations concerning “day trading”.  The regulation that I am referring to is the trading account requirements for “pattern day traders”.  This regulation requires that any person engaging in “pattern day trading”, that is entering and exiting a position on the same day, must have in excess of $25,000 in his or her trading account.

I do not day trade, but sometimes I take a position, intending to keep it for two or three days, and it starts to go south almost immediately.  And to avoid a major financial hemorrhage of my account I exit the trade on day of entry.  But according to these bizarre government rules when I get out of that trade, on day of entry, in order to save my butt, I am engaging in “pattern day trading”.  And if my account has less than $25,000 in it at the end of the day, the account must be closed.

Trading System Improved with no Stop Loss Order

So in order to avoid this situation for both me and my customers I redesigned the system I trade on this website to trade essentially without stops on day of entry.  I was surprised to find how easy this was.  What I found is that the overall performance of the system was improved.  What I also found was that trading many markets (diversification) was actually better protection against aberrant price moves than was the placement of a stop loss.  If you are in 20 markets and you get killed in just one you might still have a good profitable day because of the price movement in the other 19 markets.
I have been trading now without stop losses on day of entry for several years and have had no problems.  I might add that I also traded through the “Flash Crash” of May 6, 2010 as well as the crash of August 24, 2015 and I emerged from those fatal days without mortal injuries.  In May 2010 our overall losses for that month in fact were very small compared to the large profits we had made the previous five months. (please see my article, Flash Crash)

I have posted every one of the trades I have taken since December 1, 2009 and there is not a singe trade that I have exited on the same day I entered it.  Go ahead and examine those trades and you will see the results of trading without stops on day of entry.  There are really no large losses that stand out, we certainly win more than we lose, and our bottom line shows good profits on our investment.

I trade about 80 markets and on a really busy day I might be holding 30 to 40 positions.  In my view this is far better protection than stops.  I think that all this talk about loving your stops comes from stock index traders who almost always lose money anyway.  Stops just make their losses a little more tolerable and allow them to indulge in their gambling habit a little longer.  Believe me, I have done a lot of stock index trading in my 20 years of trading and I know of what I speak.  Stock index trading is a game of the big boys running the stops of small traders with weak hands.  If you do not have the money to allow you to use very deep stops you should stay away from the stock index game.

Stop-loss-2 Stop Loss Order

I do not think much of stock index trading and do not think it has anything to do with the kind of short term stock investing that we do.  Most of the stock index traders I have known are kind of thrill seekers who seem predisposed to losing money.  I have never known either a day trader or a stock index trader who really consistently made money over a long period of time.

Contrast this with our trading approach that never ties up a high percentage of our money in any one market and consistently yields high returns year after year in all kinds of market environments.

In summery, I believe the importance of stops has been overdone and you will make more money if you do not have to use them.  What will save you money more than price stops is spreading your money out across many markets and limiting your time in trades to two or three days.  And furthermore make sure you limit losing trades to only TWO days.

What I am really saying is that TIME STOPS offer you more protection than do PRICE STOPS.  You should try stock trading without a stop loss order based only on price. Believe me you can live without stop loss orders.   I think you will find that the dangers of trading without price stops have been vastly exaggerated.

 
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I am a trading system pro and have been trading markets and have been involved with trading system development and the programming of trading system software for 25 years. “Today Stock Market” is my opportunity to share with you some of my trading experience while discussing stock market news and giving my daily stock market update.

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Latest posts by Robert Buran (see all)




 Stop Loss Order


About System

About System

Jordi is Hot

Market-Wrap-Up-300x172 About System

By Robert Buran

COPY2-JRJC-300x199 About System

“Jordi” is hot.  This is a snapshot of Jordi’’s performance in two days in August 2014.  This trade would have cost about $45,000 in cash and it made $32,000 plus in two days.  JORDI got into JRJC the day before a 40 + % move and got out near the top.  This is admittedly as good as it can get (click to enlarge):  Jordi is a composite of trading ideas I have developed over a 20 year period.  In the two manuals included with this package I talk about my earlier ideas that developed systems using daily data.  But my dream from the beginning was to combine these ideas with intra-day data.  My belief was that using intra-day data in combination with daily data would give a trader more control over trading problems.

Jordi is therefore kind of my dreamJordi uses two data streams, a daily bar and a 15 minute bar.  As I describe in “Stock Trading Millionaires” I have pushed nearly two billion dollars worth of trades through the US stock market using a nearly identical algorithm as Jordi uses.

Jordi has never before been published.

Jordi has been modified to accommodate the small trader.   As it is presently written it can commit as little as $1,000 per trade or it can commit as much as $50,000 per trade.

I publish daily on this site all the real time trades generated by Jordi in 60 plus markets.  I am of the opinion that a $20,000 account traded on margin would support this entire portfolio of 60 plus markets.  E-mail me at bobburan@juno.com and I will send you free our current stock list.

However, a small trader could start with as little as $3,000 traded on margin.  With a $3,000 account a trader could probably trade about 10 to 15 of these stocks.  There might be a handful of days you run out of money and would be unable to take all trades, but for the most part 10 to 15 stocks would be OK.  On a normal day, if there is really such a thing, a trader could expect to be in about two or three positions at a time.

Jordi requires that you monitor your positions with live data.  Jordi is not for the casual trader.  HOWEVER, you can automate Jordi fully with TradeStation 9.5.  See  Full Automation of my Stock Trading Systems.

My systems are also compatible with Multi Charts.  With Multi Charts it is possible to trade my systems with full automation and execute trades through Inter Active Brokers.  See  http://www.multicharts.com/

Jordi is NOT a day trading system and rarely enters a trade and exits it on the same day.

Copyright 2010-2015 Short Term Stock Trading

 

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I am a trading system pro and have been trading markets and have been involved with trading system development and the programming of trading system software for 25 years. “Today Stock Market” is my opportunity to share with you some of my trading experience while discussing stock market news and giving my daily stock market update.

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Manual Trading

Manual Trading

 

wp-content-uploads-2013-01-robertburan1 Manual Trading

Manual Trading is an Art Form

Manual-Trading-1-300x200 Manual Trading
Who is going to win?

Automated trading is all the rage right now (please see my article, Automated Trading from Home) but if you really want to become a super slick professional trader you may wish to consider manual trading.  Manual trading is an art form.

To learn manual trading you must first understand the subtleties of the orders you place

STOP LOSS vs STOP LIMIT, UNDERSTANDING THE DIFFERENCE

Understanding the difference between stop loss and stop limit is very critical to profitable trading.  Understanding how to choose the right kind of order can prevent trading losses due to either failure to get out of bad trades or failure to get into good trades.

Stop loss usually means an order placed to get out of a trade, but stops can also be used to enter trades.

FIRST OF ALL SOME QUICK DEFINITIONS:

A STOP LOSS ORDER is a resting order placed with your broker prior to the price being hit.

For example you may have bought 1000 shares of XYZ at 51.5.  In order to limit your loss to about $1,500 you place a stop loss order to sell 1000 XYZ at 50.00 stop.  That stop loss order is ALWAYS filled once the price of 50.00 is hit.

Once the price of 50.00 is hit the stop loss order becomes a market order. As a market order it is it is going to be filled at whatever price is available at the time. Sometimes it may be filled at 50.00, but most likely it will be filled at 49.99 or lower. This stop loss order will NEVER be filled at a price better than 50.00 and if it is filled better rest assured that your broker will find a way to pocket the extra money.

The difference between your stop loss price (50.0) and the price you actually get, say 49.97, is called SLIPPAGE. If you are filled at 49.97 on 1000 shares your slippage amounts to $30. If you are paying your broker $20 commissions this means that your TRANSACTION COSTS for this trade is $50 (commission + slippage).

Commissions and slippage can eat you alive and this is why I recommend using a broker charging no more than $3 per round turn trade.

And to complicate the matter there are many dishonest brokers who make their living pocketing your slippage. Many years ago I had a floor trader take 6 minutes to fill a stop order and this delay cost me thousands of dollars. Acting as my own lawyer I took the guy to court and won (Buran v Lerman). The guy had to pay me back everything, pay his own attorney and court costs and in the end the exchange banned him from trading for life. But I was lucky and won only because this floor trader’s actions were so egregious. Usually dishonest brokers just nickel and dime you to death and you can’t prove anything. But they will erode your profits seriously.

You should assume the markets are corrupt because they are and you should assume your broker is dishonest because he probably is.

STOP LIMIT ORDERS

So is a stop limit order the solution? Many novice traders think that a stop limit order is the solution to all these problems. A stop limit order differs from a stop loss order in that it forces the broker to fill the order at the limit price or not fill it at all. A limit order must be filled WITHOUT SLIPPAGE.

The problem is the last part of our definition: “or not fill it at all”. A limit order will not be filled if there is a lot of competition for that price at the time the price is hit OR the market does not pull back or back tick after the price is first hit.

I have been trading a long time and I will tell you that the great majority of stop limit orders WILL be filled BUT it is the order that you desperately need to have filled that will NOT be filled. Limit orders are practically useless, in my opinion, because there is no guarantee that they will be filled. I am a systems trader and I must have ALL my orders filled. If all my orders are not filled I have no system.

Also rest assured that the limit orders that are NOT filled will cost you the most money. They could even cost you your account. Don’t play with fire.

Limit orders do not work for entry and exit of system trades and for that reason I never use them.

SO WHAT IS A TRADER TO DO? If, on one hand, stop orders are almost always filled with expensive slippage costs attached and, on the other hand, important limit orders are oftentimes not filled.

MANUAL TRADING AND THE MANUAL EXECUTION OF ORDERS

Manual-Trading-2 Manual Trading
Does the Baby Robot know best?

If you want to go with full automation ( see my article Automated Trading from Home) you are just going to have to accept a small amount of slippage for every trade.
But if you like to sit in front of the computers as I do watching markets and writing and reading, you may want to try something else. The solution that I have worked out over years of trial and error is something I call MANUAL TRADING or MANUAL ORDER EXECUTION. I still use a computer online order placement system to do this manual order execution. But I call it manual trading because I DO NOT place resting orders with my broker that allow him to play around with my orders and to execute those orders to HIS advantage.

Instead I make the trading decisions myself and execute all orders as market orders when my computer beeps me “market position has changed” (Please see Automated Trading Software). Using my trading platform my computer has no problems following my 70 markets simultaneously. The computer is still doing the thinking for me.

Although this requires me to be in front of my computers at all times when the markets are open, it is time well spent and when I have been trading millions of dollars it has saved me conservatively 100s of thousands of dollars.
I also get a lot of other work done in front of my computers and right now I am writing this article and posting on Stock Twits while I am monitoring my stock positions for today. Believe me I am working and making money while I sit here. This is not time wasted.

This is why manual trading can save you a lot of money if you can learn to be a sophisticated trader and NEVER skip trades. Normal price behavior follows a pretty predictable pattern. It goes up and then pulls back and then goes up again and then pulls back again. With no experience at all you will find that by placing market orders immediately after your buy price is hit that you will start getting some trades with positive slippage. When I say positive slippage I mean that you are getting a better price than your system price.

But when you place resting orders with your broker you will NEVER get better price than your system price.

NEGATIVE SLIPPAGE

But also be aware that just as you can sometimes gets positive slippage doing manual order execution there will be times you will get NEGATIVE SLIPPAGE as well.

Through practice you will learn when it is time to jump on a trade immediately and accept whatever price at the market you can get even if you must accept negative slippage.

A Scary Story about Manual Trading

I remember one experience I had that still makes me sweat a little thinking about. I was managing an account just under seven million dollars. A report came out that I was not expecting and prices exploded to the upside and I suddenly had to get into over 60 markets. I tried to stay calm and move my fingers as fast as I could, but it took me nearly 40 minutes to get 60 market orders in and filled.

But what happened in those 40 minutes was interesting. For the first 10 minutes all the markets made their highs in the sky caused by filling all the resting stop orders that were in all those markets. But then for the next 30 minutes the prices came back as some profit taking, perhaps by day traders, came into the markets.

Manual-Trading-3 Manual Trading
Traders Vs Robots – Who Will Win?

Then the buying came back in and almost all the markets made new highs before the close.

This resulted in my market orders for the first 10 minutes being filled poorly but the market orders for the next 30 minutes being filled at much better prices. Rest assured that if I had placed stop orders I would have been filled right at the top of the initial spikes and if I had placed limit orders I would not have been filled at all.

After the market was closed I put everything into a spread sheet and discovered that I had suffered $200,000 in negative slippage! That was the bad news. But the good news was that I had still captured about 70% of the move and that I had netted $600,000 in profits.

Not bad for a days work.

The Advantages of Manual Trading

But the point I would like to make here is that if you place resting orders with your broker you will never be filled at prices better than what your order specifies and most of the time you will be filled worse. However, if you manually execute your orders your fills will be a mixture of positive and negative slippage and, with a little practice, the two will tend to cancel each other out.

If you get really good at this you can all but eliminate transaction costs and keep all that money that your broker used to get.

So forget about stop loss orders and stop limit orders. When using those orders you are inadvertently making huge contributions to the corrupt brokerage industry.

Alternatively I would suggest that it would be well worth your time to learn manual order execution. If you really want to become a professional trader and make your living trading the stock market profitably you need to learn to sit in front of the computers and learn how to place orders manually. Learning manual trading should become the ultimate refinement of your professional trading skills.

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I am a trading system pro and have been trading markets and have been involved with trading system development and the programming of trading system software for 25 years. “Today Stock Market” is my opportunity to share with you some of my trading experience while discussing stock market news and giving my daily stock market update.





 Manual Trading


Stock Market Movement

Stock Market Movement

 

Trader Bob’s Theory of Stock Market Movement

wp-content-uploads-2013-02-robert-buran Stock Market Movement    The Rule of the Screw  By Robert Buran aka Trader Bob

Markets must move in such a manner so as to Frustrate, undermine and defeat the best interests of the majority of market players (Translate: “The Rule of the Screw”). According to this rule of stock market movement the majority cannot make money in the

wp-content-uploads-2013-02-rule-of-the-screw1-229x300 Stock Market Movementmarketplace. The markets will totally ignore technical indicators and fundamentals if the majority of the market players act on those technical indicators and fundamentals.

Price movement is predominantly random, not 100 percent random, but predominantly random. The “secret” to making money in the market is locating that small portion of market behavior which is not random and exploiting it. I do not feel that conventional technical analysis is of any value in doing this. The problem with technical analysis is that it will present the illusion of uncovering hidden relationships between price behavior and various indicators.
I would submit that all such indicators are as random as the price behavior they attempt to predict and that all profits and losses realized from trading such indicators will be randomly distributed.Stock-Market-Movement Stock Market Movement

Technical analysis is pseudo science.

Isaac Newton and the Market Place:

In place of technical analysis I prefer something I call market momentum theory.  For more details see my article, Stock Trading for Dummies.

  • First law of price movement is:

If prices move up there is greater probability they will move higher rather than lower.

  •  Second law of price movement is:

If prices move down there is greater probability that they will move lower rather than higher.

And from these simple rules comes the most important rule of trading:

  •  If price goes up you must buy the market and if price goes down you must sell the market.

You  may read this and think “well so what?, that is obvious”.  But trust me most traders and trader wannabes do not think that way at all.  When the market goes down they want to buy to get a better price.  And when the market goes up they hesitate because price is too high.

And they do not make money!  They are a part of the losing majority.

Let us look at the following chart:

wp-content-uploads-2013-02-chart-fig11-300x181 Stock Market Movement

 

This is exactly what system venders show in ads.  They show that their system buys the lows and sells the highs.  But that is a fantasy and it cannot be done.  Yet some smart traders see this and they buy the system because it shows traders what they want to believe.  Even smart traders can get sucked into this kind of thinking.

The problem is that when we look at any chart we want to buy low and sell high. You cannot, however, buy bottoms and sell tops. You can only follow a trend which has already been established through price movement in the same direction as the position you are taking.

You must understand that when you elect to buy a market when price rises you are in effect buying the market at the worst possible price at the time of your entry. It’s not going to feel good and it’s not going to look good on the charts. But by “buying high” you are probably going to be placing yourself on the minority side of the market and therefore assuring yourself of profits.

Exiting a Position

Getting out of a position is just as critical as getting in.  In my opinion most of the popular ideas for getting out do not work.  Let us look at just two of those ideas, the stop and reverse method and the trailing stop method.

Stop and Reverse method of exiting a trade:  The stop and reverse method involves utilizing some kind of indicator or a price based on an indicator. If the system is long one contract and the market comes back and the price is hit the system sells 2 contracts and reverses to a short position and so on. If you have read much of my material you know I do not like to short the stock market.

Of all possible trading strategies I have found this to be the least profitable and grossly inefficient with respect to the use of margin money. I will discuss margin efficiency in greater detail later but for now it need only be said that systems that are in the market all the time tie up your margin needlessly (see my article, Hit and Run Trading). Markets tend to move sideways about 85% of the time and consequently these systems will have your margin money tied up doing absolutely nothing for at least 85% of the time. These systems can also whipsaw you to death while moving sideways.

A system like Jordi’s Intra-Day2 is, by contrast, very margin efficient.  It gets into a market only when a given market starts significant movement and it is  usually out of the trade the following day.  “Jordi” does not tie up your margin money.

Trailing Stop:

The second most common way mechanical systems take profits is through the use of a “trailing stop.” The idea behind a trailing stop is that it allows you to “let your profits run” while at the same time “locking in” any profits you may have already made. My experience with system design and trailing stops has been that the trailing stop is at best a mediocre method of exiting a profitable position. The problem is that if the trailing stop is too tight it results in your having your stop tagged right before the start of a big move. Conversely if your stop is too deep it results in many small profits going to large losses.

The other problem I have with trailing stops is more theoretical. With a trailing stop you are trying to take profits only after the market has turned against you. Frequently you are forced to sell out your long position when many others are trying to sell too. You are then moving with the crowd and this is almost inevitably going to cause you excessive losses.

Therefore the rule I have developed with regard to taking profits is:
You should try to take profits only when the market is moving strongly in your favor.

This is much more consistent with my contrary philosophy of trading. If you are long a market and the market takes off like a space ship you should sell. By doing so you put yourself on the minority side of the market selling to the majority of panicked buyers. That is how you make money in this game.

What should you do, however, if your position starts out bad, get worse and then threatens an uncontrolled hemorrhage of your account equity?
Unfortunately this happens with about 15 or 20% of our trades and our ability to keep these losses within a normal distribution pattern is what makes or breaks us as traders. This is a particularly critical issue if you are using Systems without stops on day of entry.
Out of  frustration I developed a simple strategy that probably works better than anything I ever developed. If you are sick of always having your stops run, this simple strategy is going to be a big help. If you got into a trade based on a longer time frame such as a time frame based on daily data you need to develop a stop loss strategy that is based on a shorter time frame.

This is why Jordi’s Intra-Day2 is an improvement over my previous systems using only daily data.  Jordi uses two data streams, daily data and 15 minute bar data.

To see how looking at two different data streams can improve our analysis you should kick up a chart on your computer screen and set the bars to something like 3 to 10 minutes. If you are following our trading rules you are going to buy when the market goes up. This upward movement should create some kind of upward wave on the intra-day chart. You should measure this wave from its top to its bottom and if you are long the market you should place your stop at the point that represents a 75% retracement of that wave. If you are short the market you simply reverse the process. Hence my rule for placing your protective stop is:

Place your protective stop at a point that represents a 75% retracement (5/8 or 6/8) of the wave/move that got you in.

Let’s look at an illustration (click to enlarge):

wp-content-uploads-2013-02-chart-fig21-300x182 Stock Market Movement

Here again you see why the “buying high” strategy doesn’t sell systems. Buying point B (which is the high) looks like a terrible place to enter this market. Why not sell at point B? Or if we have to go long why didn’t we buy at point L (which is the low)? Don’t despair.

Because you feel that way others will feel that way also and so they, the majority of market players, won’t buy because it’s too scary. The market in the best tradition of the “Rule of the Screw” will sense this hesitation by the timid majority and move much higher. That will encourage the timid majority and they will then jump into this market in a buying frenzy.

At that time you will calmly sell your positions back to the frenzied majority and take your profits.  The whole scenario looks something like this (click to enlarge):

wp-content-uploads-2013-02-chart-fig31-300x230 Stock Market Movement

The point I’m making is that when you first get into these trades they seldom look good and you need to use the 75% retracement rule to place a stop so as to give yourself some peace of mind. If you go back and look at Figure 2 you can see how this stop was calculated. I measure from point L (low) to point H (high) and take 75% of that and subtract that from point H to determine the stop which is equivalent to the price shown at point SS (sell stop).

If you are an Elliot Wave purist you may notice that there are other smaller waves in figure

Try to keep it simple and try not to miss seeing the forest for the trees. I’m not an Elliot Wave purist and what I do with a 3 to 10 minute chart is to measure from the highest high after your buy point has been hit to the lowest low on the screen.

Usually that is going to be the lowest low in the last day or two. That’s what I mean by “the wave that got you in.”

The Fibonacci Connection

Some of you sharper readers may at this point notice that maybe I might really just be playing around with Fibonacci ratios. Indeed what we are really saying when we elect to place a stop at “75% retracement of the wave that got you in” is that if the market fails to be supported at the 5/8 or .618 Fibonacci retracement point, it becomes a “Fibonacci failure,” a trend reversal and we need to get out of the way of a collapsing market.

Believe me you are going to be very happy to be out of the market if these stops are hit and it will be very unusual for the market to “tag” these stops and then move higher. This is the most effective stop loss strategy we use.

Some of you technical analysts may at this point feel somewhat vindicated. Here I am telling you first that technical analysis is a lot of baloney and then I turn right around and start using Fibonacci ratios for stop placement.

Of course the ratio .618 wasn’t invented by a technical analyst. It was known to ancient Greek and Egyptian mathematicians as the Golden Ratio or the Golden Mean and was used in the construction of the Parthenon and the Great Pyramid of Gizeh.

 Summary and Conclusions

These “laws” (If Prices move up there is greater probability they will move higher rather than lower; If prices move down there is greater probability that they will move lower rather than higher) are permanent, will not break down and cannot change in the future.

Once we have entered a trade based on these rules we will reject traditional “stop and reverse” and “trailing stop” strategies of exiting our trade. Instead we will:

Take profits only when the market is moving strongly in our favor and place our protective stop at 75% retracement of the wave that got us in.

Some of you may at this point be ready to reject these market theories as being far too simple to be useful. Before you toss these ideas in the trash, however, I want you to look below and see at my equity curve for the past seven years. Look at the summary of my monthly profits from January 1, 1989 when I became fully automated, through June, 1991. Look at the consistent income and small draw downs.
How many gurus do you know who have included seven years of real-time trading records along with the materials they are selling?

I learned these rules in the marketplace and while attending the “School of Hard Knocks.” On the surface they may seem simple, but implementing them in the marketplace is a more complicated process.

You can integrate these ideas perfectly into your short term stock trading.  Later I will show you how you can consistently gain an edge on the stock market and automate a stock market trading system using these same simple rules. Using these strategies and rules of stock market movement you need not fear that these basic rules will break down or stop working. They can’t stop working anymore than Newton’s Law of Gravity can stop working.

Consider reviewing my market momentum theory in the article, Stock Trading for Dummies.

I believe if we stop looking at all those wiggly lines, stock market charts and complicated formulas and concentrate instead on simple up and down price movement we can beat the pants off the big boys. Call this back-to-the-basics trading or call it anything you like. I call it financial security:            CLICK IMAGES TO ENLARGE:

wp-content-uploads-2013-02-chart-fig51-300x249 Stock Market Movement

wp-content-uploads-2013-02-chart-fig41-280x300 Stock Market Movement

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Trading Tips

Trading Tips

 

wp-content-uploads-2013-03-robertburan Trading Tips  By Robert Buran

One of the Best Trading Tips I can Think of

Turn Your Stock Trading Hot with Normal Distribution Theory.
If you are looking for stock market trading tips let me give you one from a place that will surprise you, my college statistics book.  Yes, normal distribution patterns, taken from a dry statistics text book, may help you turn your trading hot.

Hot-Trading-Tips-1 Trading Tips
Hot Trading Tips

I have been trading for nearly 25 years and consider any year that I do not make at least a 50 percent return on my investment a bad year. But I am cautious and I do not take big risks. So how can I have my cake and eat it too?

Well I have been arguing for some time that 100 percent returns and low risk should be the norm for a stock trader and in fact I wrote a book, “How I Quit My Job and Turned $6000 into a Half Million Trading”. And I published my broker statements to prove I really did that.

How-I-Quit-small-246x300 Trading Tips
How I Quit My Job and tuned $6000 into a Half Million Trading

 

By the way it took me six years to make that half million bucks and my returns each year well exceeded 100 percent returns on my investment. I took about 10,000 individual trades and lived off the money I made.

Two Additional Trading Tips

So what are my trading secrets? I will give you a couple of my secrets right here:

  • I get into to a lot of trades (diversity)
  • I get out of my trades in two to three days (safety).

If you follow only those rules you will see your stock trading take a quantum leap in profitability. And because you are diversified and are out of the trades in two or three days your risk will be low.

I put all my trades in about 70 markets up on this website every day to prove my point, but if you do not believe that I say the proof is in the pudding. Let me give you a little statistical theory here.

Some serious market research about these three important trading tips

I am a serious market researcher and one of the things I have noticed is that a lot of market behavior follows normal distribution patterns. So just what does that mean?

Hot-Trading-Tips-2-300x108 Trading Tips
Normal Distribution

 

  • Let us look at a common measure of market behavior, daily range. Daily range is simply the daily high minus the daily low. If a market makes a high of 66 and a low of 61 the daily range is 5.
  • Now let us take 100 market days and measure the daily range of a theoretical market and assume normal distribution of range for those 100 days. What we find is that 68 days have ranges of 5 or less. 95 days have ranges of 10 or less. 99 days have ranges of 15 or less. But there is one day out of the hundred with a range of 40!
  • Put another way: For 68 days the range is 5 or less. But for 27 days the range is between 5 and 10. And for 3 days the range is between 10 and 15. And finally on ONE day the range is between 15 and 40!

NORMAL DISTRIBUTION AND STOCK MARKET STOPS

When we trade stocks we use stops to limit our losses. If we buy 50 shares of XYZ at a price of $50 per share and we want to limit our loss to $250 we will place an order to sell our 50 shares 5 dollars below where we bought or at 45 stop. Of course if our stop is too shallow it is almost always going to get tagged and result in us always losing small amounts of money with each trade. Conversely if the stop is too deep we are going to win more but when our deep stop finally gets hit the loss may wipe out all our gains.

Using normal distribution patterns is one way we can set intelligent stops. Using the hypothetical data above we know that in two out of every three market days the range will be 5 or less. Therefore if we bought 50 shares at 50.00 we can set our stop at 45.00, limit our loss to $250 and know that on any given day we have only one chance in three of having our stops hit. If we hold our trade for only two days we have a better than even chance of getting out of the trade without our $250 stop being tagged. And being as we are NOT limiting our upside potential that means that we are going to make money even if we only win 50 percent of the time.

HERE IS THE RUB

  •  BUT here is the rub. If we get greedy and try to hang on to the trade 5 to 10 days without setting a deeper stop it is virtually certain any profit we may have held will go to a loss. If we have one chance in three of getting tagged on any given day we simply cannot hang around more than two days.
  •  And while I have you thinking about stops, risk and length of trades let us quickly examine those who might consider “buy and hold” strategies. If you decided that you wanted to hold this trade for even 100 days you must, using the hypothetical data presented here, increase your stop from $250 to $2000 to accommodate that one outlier day with a range of 40. And there can be no assurances that you have a $2,000 upside potential to justify that risk.

WHY A SHORT TERM APPROACH TO STOCK TRADING WORKS

On the other hand with the two day approach you never risk more than $250 on any trade and you can move in and out of this market many times during the same 100 days. You can elect to get in only when the market is moving topside. And when it is moving sideways, which is usually about 85 percent of the time, you can go trade something else that is moving.

And that my friends, right out of a college text book, is a stock market trading tip that is worth its weight in gold and is offered here absolutely free. In fact I have, in the simplest terms that I can present here, demonstrated why short term stock trading works.

Getting 50 to 100 percent returns on your investment in stocks is not only possible, but it is possible with relatively little potential for significant equity draw down or risk. I have been doing this for many years and to prove my point I put my real time trades up on this web site every day.

The proof is in the pudding and what I have offered here is a simple statistical explanation for my success. I do not think that I could give  better trading tips than that.

 
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I am a trading system pro and have been trading markets and have been involved with trading system development and the programming of trading system software for 25 years. “Today Stock Market” is my opportunity to share with you some of my trading experience while discussing stock market news and giving my daily stock market update.




 Trading Tips


Computer Trading

Computer Trading

 
exploding-computer-1 Computer Trading
exploding computer

In early May 2010 the DOW Industrial averages dropped 1000 points and recovered, all in the space of about 15 minutes, and billions of investor money was lost.  Stock trading computers may have been responsible, but nobody is saying for sure.  Humans have not yet figured out what caused the greatest single price drop in stocks in investment history.

computer-trading-1 Computer Trading
Stock Market Bull and Bear

 

I think it is a little strange that human brains have not yet figured out what really was the problem with these computer stock trading programs, these machines of the mind.  They were programmed by humans but once networked and acting in unison, they seem to have defined their own sinister domain.  Personally I think Machines understand Wall Street, but the human mind cannot and the machines are taking over.  And if the machines take over Wall Street you are going to need a machine to make money.  If you are going to survive Stock Market Trading you must learn to Love Honor and Obey Your Computer.

EFFECTIVE MECHANICAL TRADING SYSTEM

exploding-computer-2 Computer Trading
Trading on a bad day

What I am really saying is that using a computer and an effective mechanical trading system to make consistent real money in the stock market is the only way to go.  Your brain, no matter how brilliant you think it is, cannot do it.  Your brain cannot follow enough markets plus data and process that data fast enough.  But the greatest problem that the human brain has when competing` with computer stock trading programs is that the human brain is infected with the most nefarious of viruses, human emotions.

Nearly 20 years ago while on a skiing trip I developed a trading method, written on a yellow legal pad at that time, that, with a few modifications, I continue to trade to this day.  I subsequently programmed this trading system, wrote a book, “How I Quit My Job and turned $6,000 into a Half Million Trading”, and I even published a hundred pages of my broker statements.

I remain sensitive to the fact that many tend not to believe that my unique approach to trading works and today I satisfy my need to “prove it” by putting my real time trades in 70 stock  markets up on this web site several times a day.  You can follow all my trades right here as they unfold.  I have been doing this since December 2009.

My goal now is the same as always, to utilize short term stock trading methods to get at least 50 percent annual gain on my investment and to do so with very low risk.

WHY USE A COMPUTER?

When most people start talking about stock trading they start by talking about their favorite broker who gives good advice.  Or perhaps they talk about a good “stock picker” they have found on the Internet.  Or maybe they do it themselves through lengthy research of various companies and economic fundamentals.

In my opinion all such methods are doomed to failure over time because they involve human judgment and human emotions.  A much more effective and consistent way to trade is to use a programmable trading system and follow the instructions of your

computer-trading-2 Computer Trading
Stay focused on your trading

 

computer religiously day after day, month after month and year after year.  And to this I might add: diversify by taking many trades and hold nothing longer than three days (Please see: Trading Tips).

Putting your own emotions aside along with your brilliant judgment and letting your computer do the thinking is not easy.  In fact judging from my conversations with hundreds of traders, few can do it.  But if you can do it, if you have the right stuff and if you can come to truly believe in the superior wisdom of your computer, riches in the marketplace can be yours.

WITH COMPUTER TRADING YOUR COMPUTER FOLLOWS THE SYSTEM AND YOU FOLLOW THE COMPUTER

“Following a trading system” is what few people can do.  Most people can “follow the system” for a few trades, but then if the system starts losing a little they will start skipping some trades or getting out of some trades early and so on.  Pretty soon they no longer have a system and they are losing money.

In order to “follow the system” you must surrender all trading authority to your computer and do exactly what it tells you to do, day after day, year after year.  Do you think you have the right stuff?

WHY YOU MUST BOW TO THE AUTHORITY OF A MACHINE

trading-system-1 Computer Trading
Trade like the Robot Says

 

The “authority of a machine” is your computer stock trading program.  I post the results of one such program on this site several times daily and you can buy the program and a trading platform here (Automated Stock Trading Software).  But there are others and if you are really good you can program your own.
I have been trading this way for nearly 25 years and getting those 50% to 100% returns almost all the time.  But let me pull out an old EXEL spread sheet to illustrate with real time results just why I believe in the superiority of machines.

A Spread Sheet Confirms the Superiority of Computer Trading

This spread sheet is for real time trades I took in 1999, for four months, trading an account of about one and a half million dollars.  Most do not have that kind of money to trade, but trust me; these identical methods can be used on an account with as little as $3,000.

I took 1899 trades in those four months and the spread sheet listed the real time profit and loss for each trade.  So I started by arranging all those trades in descending order from most profitable to least profitable.  This is some of the initial statistics I came up with:

1899 trades
Most profitable = 11,792
Least profitable = (-6,675)
Net profits = 437,305
Average trade (win loss) = 230

Please note three things:

  •   I trade a lot in order to spread risk over many trades.
  •   The average trade (win loss) seems small.
  •   The returns on the initial investment are about 100% adjusted for annual return.

If you go to my front page, Today Stock Market, and examine my current trading statistics you will see results similar to these 1999 results, but adjusted for a $1,000,000 account.

Computer Trading Allows you to keep Track of Many Markets

OK back to the importance of bowing to the authority of a machine.  First of all it should be noted that a trader could not possibly keep track of 1899 trades without a computer.  You are not going to find 1899 stock picks any place and you are not going to have time to research 1899 trades.  The only way to trade this way is to relax and let the programmed computer do the thinking for you.

But there is another even more critical reason for bowing to the authority of the computer when trading this way.  Do you remember I said earlier that many wannabe traders will start ignoring the computer and start skipping some trades?

Computer Trading may keep you from Skipping Trades

Skipping trades and ignoring your computer is the worst thing any trader can do.

This is why.  I took this spread sheet and figured how many trades would equal 5% of the 1899 trades.  I came up with 95 trades.  So I then put the top 95 trades into a separate column and summed the total. The sum of those top 95 trades was $433,116!  That is almost equal to our net profit of $437,305 on all 1899 trades!

Put another way that means that only one out of every 20 trades is going to make this system profitable and only one out of every twenty trades is going to result in those 100% annual returns that we are seeking.  Remove those one out of every 20 trades and we have nothing, but a lot of hard work with no positive returns at all.

So if the wannabe trader starts skipping trades rest assured he will skip these 5% great trades.  The reason why he will always skip the good trades is that good trades usually look terrible at the beginning.  To win in the marketplace you must be in the minority betting against the majority and if the trade looks bad the majority will not take it.  That is why good trades look bad and why the novice trader will ignore the computer and skip all the good trades.`

The only way around this is to park your brilliant trading mind someplace else and surrender to the  computers that are running your  stock trading programs.  Your computer will not skip trades and your computer will always follow the system.  LOVE, HONOR and OBEY your computer and you will realize riches in the marketplace beyond your dreams.   For a successful stock trader Computer Trading is the only way to go.

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I am a trading system pro and have been trading markets and have been involved with trading system development and the programming of trading system software for 25 years. “Today Stock Market” is my opportunity to share with you some of my trading experience while discussing stock market news and giving my daily stock market update.




 Computer Trading


High Return Investments in 2015

High Return Investments in 2015

wp-content-uploads-2013-03-robertburan High Return Investments in 2015 By Robert Buran

Most Americans have become weary of this slow economic recovery and may be searching for High Return Investments in 2015.

2015-300x154 High Return Investments in 2015

Many may be thinking of investment in the stock market, but few may have seriously ever thought of short term stock trading as a way to ramp up their income in 2015.
Like almost every year before, 2015 has been the subject of much speculation by the “doom and gloomers”.  There are videos floating around the Internet with credible “financial experts” predicting that 2015 will be the year of the worst stock market crash in history and that investments in the stock market will lose at least 90% of their value.  Forget the media hysteria and general stock market pessimism.  I have been short term stock trading for over 20 years in all kinds of economic environments and I can tell you that short term stock trading can be a simple, effective and safe way to invest your money in the stock market while realizing high returns.  In the year 2015 short term stock trading still works.  And using money this way can become more than a simple investment it can become a full time job.

Long before the beginning of 2015 I started to do short term trading while I was working for a public school district.  Within only five years I had quit my job to trade full time and was making far more trading than I ever dreamed of while working.

So what is it like to be a full time successful and experienced stock trader working for yourself and making a good living?  Well this may surprise you but it can actually seem like a fairly boring job.

It is February 2015 and I am bored out of my mind.  I am a stay-at-home stock trader which means I spend six and a half hours every trading day of the year in front of two computer screens trading about 60 stock markets on line.  I do not get days off; I must do this every day.  That is the downside; the upside is I work for myself.  I roll out of bed every day and walk to my computers and I can get dressed or work in my underwear if I want.  The only commuting I do is to the kitchen for coffee.

Today the DOW climbs out of a hole and gains 35 points.  I closed out  TOTAL+ $525 profit

BIG WOOP!

It’s a beautiful day and I would rather go fishing or skiing in the mountains, but instead I sit here for six and a half hours to make a few hundred bucks.

100 % Investing

funnel-grinder High Return Investments in 2015

Should I hang it up?  Should I give up?  Well I do not think so.  And this is why.  If I look at my trading statistics for the past 20 years or so and I add everything up, the good, the bad and the terrible I can see that I am making an annual equivalent of well over 100% annual returns a year on my investment.  When the markets are moving like this I call it 100 percent investing.

 

How-I-Quit-small-246x300 High Return Investments in 2015
How I Quit my job and turned $6,000 into a Half Million Trading

And dear people if you can maintain 100 per cent annual returns on your investment for five years you are going to be rich even if you start small.  It really hardly makes much difference what you start with.  Quite a few years ago I wrote a book, “How I Quit My Job and turned $6,000 into a Half Million Trading”.  Being as I was not a market guru at the time and nobody quoted me in the Wall Street Journal I figured nobody would believe me.  So half the book is simply copies of broker statements to prove that I made well over 100% for six straight years in a row.  And because I was not working any real job I took out most of the money to live on.  So I did not maximize the compounding effect.

So you think I was lucky?  Do you think this was just a flash in the pan when the markets were different?  Do you think this can be done with a small amount of money but the returns will be reduced as soon as one gets into big money?

Well I traded managed money for several years also and I pushed a couple billion dollars worth of trades through the marketplace.  Most of this is on my web site.  (see Stock Trading Millionaires) But guess what?  I made close to 100% trading millions of dollars also.

And whats really exciting to me is that here in February 2015 the markets are almost as good as when I did that about 12 years ago.  I cannot guarantee that 2015 is going to be this good for the rest of the year.  2012 was not very good.  Even with my stock trading systems it is possible to have less than optimum stock trading performance.  But even in 2012 we still made money.

But the point I really want to make in this article is that back then in different markets and even when trading millions of dollars most of the trading days were boring and it does not make any difference how much money a person is trading or the markets they trade.  Most trading is boring.  This is profitable, but it is not as exciting as you think.

I have been researching all kinds of markets for nearly two decades and two major points of my research are these:  1) 85 % of the time markets move sideways rather than up or down.  2) Using the trading strategies that we use about 70% of our profits come from about 5% of our trades.

I will say that again:   70% of our profits come from about 5% of our trades.

Do a little extrapolation from these figures and you can predict that nine out of every ten days of trading are going to be uneventful and not very exciting.

A good trader is someone who can sit there and follow the rules day after day after day.  I talk to a lot of trader wannabees.  When I tell them truthfully that I think it is quite possible for an average Joe to sit at home in front of computers and starting with a modest amount of money, to become rich in a few years, they start to salivate.  That sounds so easy.

But quite surprisingly most would-be traders drop out because they expect a lot of excitement and what they get is so routine that it becomes boring.  I frequently tell wannabe traders that one of the most important activities they must engage in is accurate record keeping.  I must spend at least 60 minutes at the end of each market day just doing spread sheets.  Ho Hum, that is not very exciting, but if you fail to keep accurate records you will never be a good trader.

But one of the worst mistakes that bored wannabe traders make is to try to introduce excitement into the trading day by taking trades outside of the rules of their trading systems.  Without going into the many stories I have heard, let me just say that is the fastest track to trader extinction.

One of the great myths pushed upon would-be investors by financial advisers and brokers is that high returns on your investments mean high risk and that low returns mean low risk.     It is no different in 2015 than 25 years ago.  People think high returns in our soft economy are impossible and IF possible come with very high risk.

The one thing I have learned from my research is that risk and returns are not statistically related.  High return investing does not have to be risky.  What is related to risk and returns is the amount of trades taken and the length of time those trades are held.  Short term stock trading is one of least risky of investments.  If the market does crash in 2013 you are going to have one really bad day, but then you are going to be out of the market and standing aside still holding most of your money.

I have been able to get very high returns with low risk for many many years in all kinds of market environments.  But to do this I must trade intensively day after day, week after week, month after month and year after year.  And after all these years I put my stuff up on my web site every day, several times a day, to prove it.  It’s right there day after day.  I can’t fake it and you can’t argue with it.  I have some good days; I have some bad days, but over time I make money.

But nevertheless most days are boring.  Some days I hate doing my daily video.  Even doing high return investing and making 100 per cent every year can be boring.

If you want excitement take up sky diving.  But if you want to get rich and be a really good trader and be willing to do it on your own, you much commit yourself to years of just doing the same thing over and over again.

But if I can do this you can also.  2015 could be your lucky year.  Why not make 2015 the year that you begin a new career and really learn about high return investments?

 

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I am a trading system pro and have been trading markets and have been involved with trading system development and the programming of trading system software for 25 years. “Today Stock Market” is my opportunity to share with you some of my trading experience while discussing stock market news and giving my daily stock market update.





 High Return Investments in 2015